We’ll focus on the nighttime matchups for the final MLB DFS article of the season. Heartfelt thanks go out to everybody that has supported this article this season and hopefully it has helped some of you cash in these contests. This was the first year of doing this and the amount of variance in DFS is staggering. It’s hard to pinpoint how players will do in one-game samples. We’ve had some successes and some failures, but the process has remained consistent throughout. We’ll still have our NFL and CFB DFS articles weekly, but baseball will return again in April.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from the twice-a-week MLB betting podcast, The Bettor’s Box, to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for October 3:
Cleveland – If the Indians can get tonight’s game in, with rain in the forecast, they will be a cheap stacking option against Craig Breslow. One thing to be aware of is that Terry Francona is very rigid about his platoons, so once Breslow exits, Lonnie Chisenhall will pinch hit for somebody. Keep a close eye on this lineup and the weather here, but the Indians will face Breslow and then a collection of call-ups and subpar middle relievers. Odds are, Ryan Raburn, Jerry Sands, and Mike Aviles will be in the starting lineup. I would expect Chisenhall to pinch hit for one of Raburn/Sands, but the core guys will remain the same.
Detroit – Erik Johnson is drawing some attention because of a 3.45 ERA and a pretty good strikeout rate, but he’s got a FIP over 6 and some ugly peripherals. Johnson is not a guy I’d want to back in any format and I’d look to go against him in this start. The concern is whether or not Detroit gets excited about this game, but Johnson has given up seven home runs and has walked 14 in 28.2 innings of work on the season at the big league level.
Houston – Since the Astros still have something to play for and Jeremy Hellickson isn’t very good, they’re probably the safest stack left on the board. Houston racked up 21 runs on Friday night, which should relax the team a little bit since big hits have been tough to come by lately. Chase Field is a good hitting environment for fly ball guys with power. Nobody hits more fly balls than the Astros and they often make the most of them.
Here are the best value hitters for October 3:
David Ortiz ($4,000) – Ortiz hit an absolute missile through a stiff wind off of Josh Tomlin on Friday night and could do the same against Corey Kluber on Saturday. Kluber has had some serious command problems over the last couple of months. It’s a bit surprising that the Indians are even sending him out for another start, since the hamstring seems to be an issue. But, they want him to enter the offseason with some confidence. Big Papi may make that hard to do if he catches a flat cutter and hits it deep into the night.
Justin Bour ($3,900) – Bour has a very favorable matchup here against a pitcher that has allowed eight home runs in just 27 innings of work on the season. It all depends on which game of the doubleheader he plays, though he could conceivably play both. It’s pretty impressive that he’s hit 20 home runs while playing half of his games at Marlins Park. Citizens Bank Park in Philly is a much better hitting environment. Like most of the games on the East Coast, however, watch out for rain in this one as well. These two teams do not need to play their games today if the weather is bad.
Marcus Semien ($3,300) – For all of his fielding foibles, Marcus Semien has actually had a pretty decent offensive season. He has a shot at 15 home runs and has a .327/.371/.510 slash against lefties on the year. A 145 wRC+ and a .378 wOBA with the platoon advantage make him a pretty good play for Saturday. Also, he’s in one of the few games guaranteed to be played today because it’s in the northwest at Safeco Field. Be wary of that as you fill out your lineups.
Here are the best value pitchers for October 3:
Roenis Elias ($6,900) – Oakland has had problems with lefties all season long, so he’s probably the cheapest option with the upside to throw a good game. There are so many variables over these final couple games of the season. Is Oakland going to be eager to play? Probably not, but Elias has something to prove since he’d like to be in the starting rotation next season.
Kyle Hendricks ($7,400) – It’s a difficult assignment to pitch at Miller Park, but Hendricks should be up for the challenge. He has some great stats with an 8.22 K/9, a 2.22 BB/9, but a 69.7 percent LOB% has taken a toll on his ERA. His 3.46 FIP and 3.33 xFIP are better indicators of his talent and he’s made some mechanical tweaks of late to post a 22/2 K/BB ratio over his last three starts. He’s definitely worth a play on Saturday.
Justin Verlander ($9,200) – Justin Verlander will compete and he won’t be on any kind of pitch limit like some of the other top-tier starters will be on Saturday. Verlander isn’t the same power pitcher that he once was, but he’s facing a pretty bad White Sox lineup in his 2015 finale and he definitely wants to hit the offseason on a high note. As of now, he’s the de facto ace of that Detroit staff next season and that means he wants something to build on for next year.