Sundays can be tough for a lot of bettors and DFS players. Early games sometimes feature some interesting lineups and it can be a bit difficult to wipe the sleep from your eyes and set a lineup before heading out for a (hangover?) brunch. There are 15 games today, weather permitting, so the options are aplenty for April 24. Let’s see where the value is on a day with some big disparities in pitching salaries and some backups getting a look.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for April 24:
Toronto – At some point, this Blue Jays lineup is going to find a way to break out. After having an historic season against southpaws last year, the Toronto offense ranks 26th in wOBA against LHP. They have the worst walk rate against LHP in all of baseball and also own a .269 BABIP, which is not nice. I would expect these numbers to regress in a very positive way with a lineup loaded with right-handed sluggers. Today seems like a good day against a journeyman lefty like Eric Surkamp.
Chicago Cubs – Alfredo Simon, we meet again. After an awful relief appearance on April 15, Simon returns to the rotation to try and get a really good Chicago Cubs lineup out. Since the 2014 All-Star Break, Simon owns a 5.07 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is well below 2/1. He’s simply not good. The Cubs offense is pretty good and it’s not as expensive to stack as you might think, even against a guy like Simon. With some cheap SP today, this is a great idea.
St. Louis – The Cardinals have been one of the league’s top offensive teams this season and they have a good draw today against Colin Rea. Rea’s stuff isn’t bad, but he’s had some command issues to kick off the 2016 season and his control has been suspect as well. He’s a decent prospect, but he’s also not a guy that set the world on fire in the minors. He’s allowed a lot of hard contact and his strikeout rate is misleading with a low swinging strike rate. The Cardinals should enjoy today’s game.
Here are the top value hitters for April 24:
Ryan Raburn ($3,700) – This is an easy pick to start things off. Ryan Raburn owns left-handed pitchers and has throughout his career. He owns a .265/.340/.493 slash line and already has a couple of home runs off of southpaws this season. The Rockies draw Alex Wood in this outing and they should be able to get some good swings against him. Raburn will be right in the middle of it and should be bumped up the lineup a little bit to be in a premium run-producing spot.
Domingo Santana ($3,200) – Usually we look to play Santana when he has a platoon advantage, but it really hasn’t mattered this season. If you look at exit velocity charts, one name stands out above the rest. It’s Domingo Santana. The right-handed slugger is hitting the ball hard all over the field. He’s also working counts and drawing walks. Against Jerad Eickhoff, who doesn’t have enough stuff to get through a lineup unscathed the second or third time, Santana could be the guy that picks out a hanger and hits it a long way.
Freddie Freeman ($3,500) – It’s tough to get Freddie Freeman at a price like this because he really stands out in that Atlanta lineup as one of the few consistent hitters. Jacob deGrom is making his first start after he and his wife went through a pretty tumultuous childbirth last week. He’s going to take some time to get back into the fold and Freeman is the best hitter in the Atlanta lineup and the most capable of doing damage. He owns a .297/.379/.498 slash against righties in his career.
Here are the top value pitchers for April 24:
Adam Conley ($6,600) – There aren’t a lot of believers in Adam Conley, but his improvements seem to be pretty legit. The strikeout rate isn’t going to stay where it is, but the stuff projects really well and his ability to throw any pitch in any count to confuse a hitter is quite an impressive skill. He was impressive in 11 starts and four relief appearances last season and has a deep enough arsenal to compete against good lineups. AT&T Park should be a good place for him as he looks to lower his 4.61 ERA to something closer to his 3.07 FIP and 2.83 xFIP.
Tyler Duffey ($6,700) – The Minnesota Twins screwed up by not keeping Tyler Duffey in their rotation. Jose Berrios is coming soon, but Duffey is the one that gets the nod today. Duffey is basically the only Twins starter with strikeout upside, which he showed in 10 starts last season with a 21.9 percent K%. The Nationals are a solid lineup, but Duffey is an underrated starter with a good pitch mix to induce ground ball contact and strike out a batter per inning.
Aaron Blair ($6,800) – If you’re interested, you can take a gamble on Aaron Blair. The Braves’ top pitching prospect is making his Major League debut at home against the New York Mets. Blair struck out 22 in 19 Triple-A innings after a very impressive season last year. His strikeout rate from the low minors didn’t show up at Double-A or Triple-A last season, but he was focused on commanding his pitches and inducing weak, early contact. He can let it all hang out here and has strikeout upside until hitters adjust.