Tuesday night brings us a conventional slate of games with all 30 teams playing at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Six pitchers with five-figure price tags will be on the mound, so it’s an interesting day for finding value on hitters and pitchers. If you can, the goal, at least in GPPs, would be to set up a roster with a stack of three or four players from a team that should have a big night, some value picks, a top-tier starter, and one of the lower-priced options. Three of the top four starters have very favorable matchups. If it’s possible to construct a decent lineup with two of them, you may be sitting very pretty.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for April 26:
Minnesota – The Twins offense has been pretty bad this season because they have struck out a ton. That won’t be a worry against Cody Anderson. One silver lining to Anderson is that he does force hitters to hit their way on base, but the stuff is very pedestrian. It won’t be a surprise if hitters struggle through the first inning or two, but the second and third time through the lineup, Anderson’s lack of arsenal depth comes to the forefront. Through 105.2 career MLB innings, he owns a 4.65 FIP, a 4.63 xFIP, and a 4.83 SIERA. Ignore his ERA, because his batted ball luck was extremely good last season.
Oakland – As I’ve said in past write-ups, it’s worth stacking against Mike Pelfrey every time he takes the mound. In 14.2 innings this season, Pelfrey has allowed 32 baserunners. He’s walked 12 in 14.2 innings of work. The A’s have been on a nice little run here of late and they’re going to throw a plethora of platoon advantages at Pelfrey. Lefties have reached in 20 of their 35 plate appearances against Pelfrey this season. That’s a .464/.588/.692 slash. Obviously it’s an extremely small sample size, but lefties did own a .308/.398/.436 slash last season in 345 PA.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Tom Koehler is a sneaky play to stream at home. Away from home, however, Koehler morphs into the stuff of nightmares. The right-hander owns a 3.72 ERA with a .245/.321/.385 slash at home, but a 4.51 ERA with a .261/.337/.424 slash on the road. His home run rate takes a big climb away from home and his K/BB ratio takes a dive. His road FIP is 4.63 and his road xFIP is 4.57. Dodger Stadium isn’t a bad pitcher’s park, so maybe Koehler can stave off a bad performance, but we’ll trust the numbers here.
Here are the top value hitters for April 26:
Nomar Mazara ($3,500) – Look, you’re going to get tired of seeing his name here, but you shouldn’t. I’ll at least throw some different stats your way. Mazara is only swinging and missing at a 5.8 percent clip and he’s making contact with 96.2 percent of pitches in the zone. Pitchers aren’t throwing him a lot of stuff in the zone, but he’s showcasing very good bat-to-ball skills. He has a 27 percent line drive rate. These are legitimate plate discipline and batted ball metrics. This kid can hit.
Oswaldo Arcia ($3,600) – Last night’s hero, Oswaldo Arcia hit a missile with about a 200 mph exit velocity off of Zach McAllister to walk it off for the Twins against the Indians. Arcia’s biggest problem is that he swings and misses a ton. Cody Anderson’s biggest problem is that very few guys swing and miss. Arcia has hit 33 HR in 606 career plate appearances against righties. It all adds up to a .249/.322/.487 slash throughout his career.
Brandon Belt ($3,500) – Brandon Belt should get some good swings tonight against James Shields. All of the sudden, Shields has totally lost all semblance of command. Over his last 228.1 innings, Shields has allowed 37 home runs. Twenty-four have come from left-handed hitters. Lefties slugged .522 against him last season. Belt is a .274/.353/.457 career hitter against right-handed pitchers.
Here are the top value pitchers for April 26:
Nathan Karns ($8,000) – One of the commonly held beliefs about bad travel spots is that the second day often affects a team more than the first. The Astros looked bad against Taijuan Walker on Monday in a bad travel spot. Nate Karns could be able to take advantage on Tuesday against the free-swinging Astros. Karns has swing-and-miss stuff. He’s been a strikeout per inning guy over his 186.1 pro frames. His walk rate is a little bit worrisome, but Safeco Field allows pitchers a decent margin for error, so this could be a good spot to stream him.
Kyle Hendricks ($8,600) – A 56.1 percent strand rate has kept Kyle Hendricks from maximizing his potential this season. He has a terrific 5/1 K/BB ratio and the strikeouts should continue to climb, particularly against a bad Milwaukee lineup full of right-handed hitters. Hendricks’s plate discipline numbers are pretty similar to last season’s, though he does seem to be feeling for his breaking balls a little bit. As the season goes along, he will only get stronger.
Matt Wisler ($6,000) – Let’s really take a gamble here with this last one. Matt Wisler has thrown the ball really well in his first three starts this season. We’ll probably see some regression soon, but the hope would be that he can navigate a dangerous Boston lineup to give us some value. The Red Sox were in a pretty bad spot on Monday night and managed to eke out a win. If that second day theory holds water, perhaps the Red Sox will scuffle offensively again tonight. You can bet that nobody’s going to be looking to back Wisler, so if you can grab 12-15 points with a strikeout per inning over six against a lineup that has never seen him, you’ll be sitting fairly pretty.