Perhaps more than any other sport, finding success in daily fantasy baseball means plenty of number crunching. Finding suitable value once lineups are released is the name of the game, but you also need to be able to ignore some of the higher-priced options that may be staples in your lineups most nights. That's what we're here for. Here are five guys I'll be fading tonight on both FanDuel and Draft Kings for a full Wednesday slate.
Carlos Correa, SS, vs. Seattle ($4.2k on FD, $4.4k on DK)
Shortstop tends to be a pretty light-hitting position in general, but you can typically find some solid value. Correa started the season with a bang, homering three times in Houston's first two games. Since then, though, he's struggled to hit for power. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is slugging just .317 after Houston's first two games (o HR) and has just 16 hits in 73 plate appearances. Tonight he'll be going up against Hisashi Iwakuma, who boasts a very strong ground ball percentage (49.9%) for his career. Correa obviously doesn't have to leave the yard in order to pay off, but Iwakuma isn't a guy that allows a lot of hard contact.
Ian Kinsler, 2B, vs. Oakland ($3.8k on FD, $4.2k on DK)
Kinsler is typically a fine option at another position devoid of a ton of power hitters, but his career splits are worse when facing right handed pitching. Kins and the rest of the Tigers draw Sonny Gray tonight, which is certainly never an easy matchup regardless of handedness. With several cheaper bats in better matchups (LeMahieu at Coors Field, Dozier against Josh Tomlin, Panik against Andrew Cashner), there's no real reason to pay slightly more for Kinsler. He's gotten off to a strong start this season overall, but I don't think there's enough upside here to warrant paying a premium.
Todd Frazier, 3B, vs. Toronto ($4k on FD, $4k on DK)
ToddFather has found his stroke a bit since struggling out of the gates, but he's a high-strikeout guy going up against a guy that fares well against righties in Marco Estrada. Small sample size, but Estrada has K'd over 33% of right-handed hitters he's faced so far in 2016. That number dips to about 22% for his career, but that's still above average. Frazier can obviously make your night worthwhile with a #dong at any time, but I'm not feeling his matchup or price this evening.
Manny Machado, 3B, vs. Tampa Bay ($4.5k on FD, $4.4k on DK)
Machado has been raking this season, but I'm going to have to give him the #fade tonight. The O's face off against Matt Moore and the Rays, and Moore has been fantastic this season. He's a reverse splits pitcher for his career, which doesn't bode too well for the likes of Machado. Moore has whiffed over 23% of righties he's faced throughout his career, while Machado is actually a reverse splits hitter, as well. He hits better against right-handers, and, given the way Moore has been mowing guys down so far, I'm not overly optimistic about the potential for Machado to meet the value that comes with his hefty price tag this evening. No, thanks.
Jose Quintana, LHP, vs. Toronto ($8.3k on FD, $9k on DK)
Quintana has been excellent so far this season for the ChiSox, but if we know one thing about daily fantasy baseball, it's that we don't want to be targeting pitchers going up against the Blue Jays. Particularly left-handers. Last season Toronto ranked No. 1 in all of the majors in wOBA against lefties as a team (.344) and wRC+ (117) by a wide margin. The Jays haven't been quite as dynamic thus far against lefties (.322 wOBA, 109 wRC+), but those are still numbers we want no part of when selecting a pitcher. It feels safe to say Quintana's run of success to start the season comes to a screeching halt tonight.