One day game gets eliminated from daily fantasy contention here on this Wednesday. The San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants are playing getaway day baseball in the bay, so 14 games and 28 teams make up our DFS focus for April 27. It is not a night of aces on the mound, so hitters are going to cost a pretty penny and pitchers come at a pretty decent value. There’s another Coors Field game today, so that needs to be factored into your lineup.
There have been an increasing number of complaints and a growing sense of discontent regarding Coors Field. It will be interesting to see if any controls are ever put in place to cheapen the effect of that hitter-happy environment. It would be a surprise to see something like that, but it’s fair to wonder whether or not the vocal minority can push some change.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for April 27:
Texas – CC Sabathia did not pass the eye test last week and his steadily-declining stuff is going to push him into a bullpen role in short order. Sabathia gave up three earned on seven hits over 4.2 innings of work and that’s probably a good start for him at this point. All of the data can show you when he started falling off and it was about four years ago. With no cartilage in his knee and no velocity behind his pitches, he’s worth stacking against every time he takes the mound.
Washington – Normally, you’d peg a guy with a 6.7/1 K/BB rate with a 5.21 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 3.48 xFIP for some positive regression. The problem is that Jeremy Hellickson’s command has been terrible. He’s allowed four home runs in 19 innings with a 25.9 percent line drive rate and a 35 percent hard contact rate. This is nothing new in the hard contact department. He’s been above 33 percent in each of the last four seasons. Once his Zone-Contact% regresses to its mean, things could actually get worse.
Arizona – The stuff just doesn’t seem to be there for Adam Wainwright. He worked his way to a bare minimum quality start last time out against an awful Padres lineup, but his 2016 returns are disappointing. He’s still walked more batters than he has struck out and the ground ball stuff just isn’t there. For a guy with a 48.8 percent GB% over his career to have a 39 percent GB% over his first 22.1 innings is a concern. Batted ball rates usually stabilize pretty quickly, so there are clear concerns with Wainwright’s sinker here early in the season.
Here are the top value hitters for April 27:
Nolan Arenado ($5,200) – We already know about the Coors Field impact, but have you considered Nolan Arenado’s numbers at home with a platoon advantage? In 241 career PA against southpaws at Coors, Arenado owns an obscene .343/.415/.695 slash. He’s already hit two homers against lefties at home this season. Oh, and he also has 26 BB against just 19 K. If you’re going to be playing DFS on a daily basis, you need to make room for Arenado at home against lefties.
Michael Conforto ($4,000) – We’ve finally lost some of the value on Michael Conforto. He’s still a decent look at this price against replacement-level starter Jon Moscot, but I wanted to point out that Conforto’s prowess against right-handed pitching has been noticed by the DFS algorithms. It took a while. It does take a while for adjustments to be made. When we hit on a really cheap value guy, keep playing him until the wheels fall off. Conforto has a robust .344/.438/.623 slash on the season, with most of that damage against righties.
Corey Dickerson ($3,300) – Don’t let Dickerson’s full-season performance to date scare you. Kevin Cash has allowed him to get 15 PA against LHP and he’s terrible against same-side pitching. He’s batting .286/.352/.694 against righties, which is exactly the reason why he was acquired. He draws Chris Tillman tonight. Dickerson’s .311/.357/.585 slash against righties is Coors-inflated, but he was still about a league average hitter against RHP away from Coors. Remember that the Coors affect also hurts Rockies players when they go on the road because they see much different spin than they are accustomed to.
Here are the top value pitchers for April 27:
Jose Berrios ($6,900) – Expect a nice debut for Berrios against the Indians on Wednesday night. Berrios was ready for the big leagues last season, but the Twins front office has no idea what it is doing. It was probably an arbitration-related decision, but with the Super Two deadline likely passed for this season, Berrios gets the nod. The 21-year-old owns a career MiLB 3.78/1 K/BB ratio and showcased good command in the minors.
Steven Wright ($6,600) – A terrible Braves lineup takes on knuckleballer Steven Wright on Wednesday night. Several hitters in this rebuilding lineup probably have limited exposure against the knuckler and it can be a very difficult pitch to hit. Wright’s has been good this season and he has 17 K in 19.1 innings of work. A strikeout per inning and the high likelihood of scooping up a win should give him a ton of value at this low price today.
Scott Kazmir ($6,700) – It’s been one nagging injury after another for Scott Kazmir over the last couple of seasons. A thumb bruise on his pitching hand is the latest culprit, but this is a good matchup for him. The Marlins have a lot of guys that hit righties well, but some of their platoon numbers against lefties are less encouraging. Kazmir struggled twice with a very good San Francisco lineup and made his last start in Coors Field. This is a much better environment for him and we should see some positives come out of this start.