We have a full slate of games to consider today with all 30 teams in action. Texas and Colorado play early, so we’ll focus mostly on the evening slate with the prices spread across the board. There are some pretty big favorites out there, but there are enough games within our range to play. Without further adieu, let’s dive into the card.
After a recap of how yesterday went. The Mariners did win in that game with a weird line and the line actually went in Seattle’s direction, which was very surprising. The Rangers were a one-run winner, so that one didn’t break in our favor. The Blue Jays did win as heavy chalk, but a marathon extra-inning affair pushed the SF/MIA game well over the total.
Our focus, as it always is, will be on the games that provide a lot of line value and those that give us the opportunity to dig deep and find the wagering angles and betting tips that will produce winners.
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Per usual, the games with big lines will be overlooked, unless there is something particularly noteworthy about them or a play on the underdog is a possibility. Also, day games are usually skipped due to the lead time of the article. That will not be the case on Wednesdays, Thursdays, or Sundays when there are a lot of day games.
Arizona at New York (NL) (-130); Total: 7
One of the biggest line moves of the day belongs to this one between Arizona and the Mets. Zack Greinke makes his return to the Diamondbacks rotation after missing time from an oblique injury. He made one rehab start and gave up five runs in five innings, so that would explain the line move of more than 20 cents. The Diamondbacks were certainly getting too much respect at the opening price.
Up until his last start, Steven Matz was pitching pretty well for the Mets. Matz gave up six runs on six hits in six innings to the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. That would seem to be a blip in the road for Matz, though he hasn’t been as dominant or efficient as he was earlier in the season. The Diamondbacks are a good offensive team against lefties, as we know, but I’ve really downgraded them a lot and this number may still be a bit too low.
I’d lay it and play it with the Mets.
San Francisco at Miami (-105); Total: 8
Depending on which book you use, either the Giants or the Marlins are favored for tonight’s matchup. Matt Moore takes the ball against Tom Koehler in what could be a difficult day for both teams. These two teams played 14 innings last night in San Francisco’s 8-7 win. Once Jose Fernandez left for the Marlins, the floor caved in and the Giants battled back from a big deficit.
Looking at today, I have high hopes for Matt Moore. Moore’s move from Tampa Bay to San Francisco represented a lot of positives. He’s on a much better defensive team now. He’s also in a much more forgiving league when it comes to offense. I like Moore for the rest of the season. He’s an unfamiliar lefty to a lot of NL hitters and that means something in my mind.
Tom Koehler is a replacement-level starter and a guy. There’s reason to believe that Koehler could be more efficient in this start and save the Marlins bullpen a bit more than Moore, but I like the road team and I like Moore’s upside in this spot.
Houston (-125) at Minnesota; Total: 9
The Astros are plenty familiar with Tuesday’s opponent Hector Santiago, but it may not matter the way things are going right now. It seems like Houston spent so much energy to get back in the mix in the AL West race that they are now running on fumes. Mike Fiers is the guy that will be called upon to stop the bleeding here today. Fiers has a 4.34 ERA with a 4.42 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP in his 116 innings this season, so he hasn’t stopped a whole lot of bleeding.
Hector Santiago had a typical Hector Santiago start with four runs allowed on five hits in five innings for his Twins debut. He’s a guy that has given me fits for quite some time and I’m not entirely sure what to do in his games. This season, Santiago has a 4.37 ERA with a 5.14 FIP and a 5.13 xFIP.
All I know right now is that I don’t trust Houston. They’ve had some chances to get back into this AL West hunt and they’ve taken some steps back. When they get a good start, they don’t hit. When they hit, they get outscored. It’s a frustrating set of circumstances. At this point, I’d look to fade Houston when there’s a good opportunity. Whether or not this is a good opportunity is up for debate, but Houston is a tough team to back right now.
Detroit at Seattle (-110); Total: 8.5
One more game in today’s write-up and it features a couple of teams that we talked about yesterday. The Tigers and Mariners continue their series in the northwest after Seattle’s 3-0 win yesterday. The Tigers had to make the long trek to the Pacific Northwest and it seemed to affect their bats. Will they be ready to go tonight?
Daniel Norris is back with the Tigers for the first time since July 4. He worked two innings against the Indians and left the game. Norris has made starts across four levels this season with a decent FIP, but he hasn’t been able to work out of too many jams. The one constant for Norris has been a lot of strikeouts. He’ll face Wade LeBlanc, who still seems to be on borrowed time for the Mariners rotation. LeBlanc now owns a 4.31 ERA with a 5.05 FIP and a 4.63 xFIP in his 31.1 innings. Scott Servais wasn’t convinced that LeBlanc would get another start, but here we are.
One has to think that Norris is the higher-upside play between the two, so the side to lean towards is Detroit. The Tigers had a day to get acclimated to the time change and nobody has been as hot as the Tigers over the last couple weeks.