Missouri vs. Kentucky College Football Betting Pick 10/26/19


In a battle featuring two schools that like running the football, Coach Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats are getting 10.5 points when they take on the Missouri Tigers to Kroger Field. This conference showdown starts at 7:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to SEC Network. When the two schools met last year, Kentucky earned the win 15-14.

Missouri at Kentucky Betting Predictions 10/26/2019

In this Saturday Southeastern game, Missouri is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 10.5 points. The Tigers are also receiving -425 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +315. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points. If Missouri falls down early, it will probably result in a nice betting opportunity in-game.

Square bettors are hammering the Tigers. The opening line was 9.5 and the game’s total hasn’t changed after being set initially at 47.5.

The disappointing Tigers are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 6.5 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-5.

The Wildcats have gained 0.0 units this season. The team is 5-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-4.

The Tigers are 5-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 3-4 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.

The Tigers are looking to get back in stride after a 21-14 defeat to Vanderbilt last week where Kelly Bryant completed just 13 passes on 26 attempts for 140 yards, along with a score and a pick. Bryant (72 rushing yards on 16 attempts) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Larry Rountree III (29 yards on 12 carries, one TD). Jonathan Nance (three receptions, 34 yards) and Johnathon Johnson (three catches, nine yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Back on October 19, Georgia blanked this Kentucky team by a score of 21-0. The Wildcats defense allowed the Bulldogs to run for 235 yards on 43 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. D’Andre Swift torched the defense, putting up 179 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 attempts for Georgia. For Kentucky, Lynn Bowden Jr. completed two-of-15 passes for 17 yards. Bowden Jr. (99 rushing yards on 17 attempts) mounted the running game while Bryce Oliver (one receptions, 9 yards) and Clevan Thomas Jr. (one catch, eight yards) led all Kentucky pass-catchers in the loss.

Each of these squads sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Missouri’s run the ball on 57.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Kentucky has a rush percentage of 56.8. The Tigers have rushed for 193 yards per game (including 193 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wildcats are putting up 188 rush yards per game (180 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.

The Tigers offensive scheme has averaged 256 yards in the air overall (232 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have put up 167 pass yards per contest (140.2 against SEC foes) and have seven total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Missouri should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 114 rush yards and 156 pass yards per game. The Kentucky D has allowed 182.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 182.0 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.67 to opponents, while the Wildcats have allowed a 4.82 ANY/A.

Bryant likely has the edge over Bowden Jr. in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.57for the season and 6.09 over the past two games. Bowden Jr.’s ANY/A is 2.65 for the season and 3.75 over his last two games.

Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats Betting Pick

SU Winner – Missouri, ATS Winner – Missouri, O/U – Over


Betting Trends

The O/U for Missouri’s previous game was 56.5. The under cashed in the team’s 21-14 defeat to Vanderbilt.

As a team, Missouri has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.7 over its last two.

Kentucky has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its past two.

The Kentucky offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Missouri has lost four.

Over its last three contests, Missouri is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Kentucky’s last outing was set at 45. The under cashed in the 21-0 defeat to Georgia.

Over its last three matches, Kentucky is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The Tigers offense has created seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Wildcats have put up two such plays.

The Missouri defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Kentucky has given up zero such plays.

The Missouri offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kentucky has created 18 such runs.

The Tigers defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Wildcats have given up 12 such runs.

The Kentucky defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 15 times this year. Missouri has recorded 13 sacks.

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