Mississippi State vs. Arkansas College Football Betting Pick 11/2/19

0

The Razorbacks (+7) are prepared to welcome their SEC nemesis Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7) to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. The afternoon matchup kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to SEC Network.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Betting Odds 11/2/2019

Mississippi State is favored by 7 points in this SEC game. The Bulldogs are currently getting -300 moneyline odds while the Razorbacks are +220. There should be some good in-game betting opportunities while this matchup’s taking place, and the over/under (O/U) has been placed at 56.5 points.

The game’s total has shifted higher after initially being set at 55.5. The opening line (7) has stayed consistent.

The Bulldogs are 3-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against SEC opponents. The Razorbacks are 2-6 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play. The disappointing Bulldogs are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 5.5 units so far. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-3.

The Razorbacks are down 2.0 units this season. They’re 2-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-6.

The Bulldogs dropped one to Texas A&M 49-30 in a blowout where the passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as Garrett Shrader completed only 13-of-30 passes for 194 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Kylin Hill (150 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Shrader (64 yards on 14 carries) mounted the ground attack. Isaiah Zuber (three receptions, 58 yards, two TDs) and Deddrick Thomas (three catches, 43 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

One week ago, Alabama took care of this Arkansas team by a score of 48-7. The Razorbacks defense allowed the Crimson Tide to run for 179 yards on 38 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Jerry Jeudy had a solid showing, recording 103 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches for Alabama. As a group, the Razorbacks collectively completed 11-of-26 passes for 107 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Nick Starkel went five-for-19 for 58 yards and three interceptions while John Stephen Jones was six-of-seven for 49 yards and one touchdown. Rakeem Boyd (50 rushing yards on 12 attempts) mounted the running game as Cheyenne O’Grady (four receptions, 13 yards, one TD) and Boyd (four catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Mississippi State has run the ball on 60.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Arkansas has an overall rush percentage of 45.5 percent. The Bulldogs have produced 187 rush yards/game (including 164 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Razorbacks are logging 131 rushing yards per contest (100 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.

Based on the results so far, the Bulldogs could hold an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, since their running backs has logged 4.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.5 to opponents. The Razorbacks have recorded 4.2 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.8 to opponents.

The Bulldogs have averaged 192 yards through the air overall (195 per game versus conference opposition) and have 12 passing TDs so far. The Razorbacks have put up 233 pass yards per outing (201.6 against SEC competition) and have 10 total pass scores.

Mississippi State has let opponents run for an average of 159 yards and throw for 243 yards per game. Arkansas has allowed 191.1 rushing yards per game and 227.5 to opponents in the air. The Razorbacks are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.29 to opposing QBs, while the Bulldogs have allowed a 7.97 ANY/A.

Shrader has amassed 784 pass yards on the year, and has completed 58-of-108 attempts with six passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Shrader’s got a 5.96 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.74 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from Mississippi State in this one. Kylin Hill, Stephen Guidry and Garrett Shrader have collectively accounted for 468 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.

In the home locker room, Ben Hicks has accounted for 692 yards, two TDs and one INT. Hicks’ ANY/A stands at 4.90 for the year and 3.45 across his last two outings.

We’re thinking the Razorbacks will dictate tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Cheyenne O’Grady (300 receiving yards, two TDs this season) has contributed lately, but Rakeem Boyd (667 rush yards, five rush TDs, 105 receiving yards) and Devwah Whaley (230 rush yards, three rush TDs, 108 receiving yards) have been key factors in the Arkansas offense.

When these two squads faced one another last year, Mississippi State knocked Arkansas off easily 52-6.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Prediction

SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Over

Notes

Team Betting Notes

The O/U for Mississippi State’s last game was 49.5. The over cashed in the team’s 49-30 defeat to Texas A&M.

As a team, Mississippi State has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.5 over its last two.

Arkansas has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and only 2.7 over its last two.

Arkansas has lost five fumbles this season while Mississippi State has let nine get away.

In its last three contests, Mississippi State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Mississippi State has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 15-point win over Kentucky on September 21st representing the only victory over that span.

The Over/Under for Arkansas’ last match going into it was 56. The under cashed in the team’s 48-7 defeat to Alabama.

Over its last three contests, Arkansas is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Arkansas has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a 21-point victory over Colorado State on September 14th representing its only win over that span.

The Bulldogs offense has produced one pass play of 40+ yards, while the Razorbacks have put up six such plays.

The Mississippi State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Arkansas has given up six such plays.

The Mississippi State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Arkansas has created seven such runs.

The Bulldogs defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Razorbacks have given up 21 such runs.

The Arkansas defense has registered 18 sacks on the year while Mississippi State has 13.

Leave a Reply