The Minnesota Timberwolves (16-38) look to end a seven-game road losing streak when they take on the Denver Nuggets (38-18) at Pepsi Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 225.5 points with Denver opening as a 12.5-point favorite. Action starts at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 23, 2020, and it can be seen on NBATV.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Odds Preview
The last time the Timberwolves played, they fell to the Boston Celtics, 127-117. They failed to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. D’Angelo Russell had a good game for Minnesota, contributing 18 points, 13 assists and six rebounds. Boston had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4 (above their season average of 23.6). Minnesota, on the other hand, had a turnover percentage of 7.1 (better than their season average of 12.7). The two teams combined to score 244 points, which was well over the O/U total of 225.5.
The Nuggets are hoping to rebound after failing to cover as 1.5-point underdogs in their 113-101 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last outing. Nikola Jokic was the game’s high scorer with 32 points on 12-for-15 shooting. Oklahoma City forced the Nuggets into a turnover percentage of 17.9 (above their season average of 11.3). Denver, on the other hand, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.519 vs. 0.511). The two clubs collectively scored 214 points, which finished just under the O/U total of 216.
Denver should have an edge on the offensive glass in this battle. The Nuggets currently rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (24.9 percent), while Minnesota ranks 19th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent). It will also be a showdown of contrasting tempos as the fast-paced Timberwolves rank second in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Nuggets rank 28th.
These two teams are complete opposites in terms of the O/U total. Minnesota games have finished over 55.6 percent of the time, while games featuring Denver have gone under 55.4 percent of the time. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Nuggets have a significant advantage. They are 38-18 SU and 25-25-6 ATS, while the Timberwolves are 16-38 SU and 18-34-2 ATS.
These two teams have met three times already this season, with the Nuggets winning all three. In the most recent matchup, the Timberwolves lost 107-100, unable to cover as 3.5-point favorites. Karl-Anthony Towns scored a game-high 28 points and also put up eight rebounds and five assists. The two teams combined to score 207 points, which was 14 points below the projected point total of 221 points. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.5 vs. 21.6). Minnesota, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (8.5 vs. 12.0).
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
Denver ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Minnesota ranks 24th (17.7).
Denver averages 49.0 points in the paint per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Minnesota ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (49.7).
The Timberwolves rank third in steals per game (8.6) while the Nuggets rank 11th (8.0).
Minnesota is 12-13-1 ATS on the road, while Denver is 12-13-3 ATS at home.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.
Over its past five outings, Minnesota is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.6, down from 3.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 122.6 points per game (10.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 124.2 points per game (8.1 above their season average).