Sports
Sportsbooks
Casino
Top Lists
Compare Sportsbook
More

On Saturday at 7:00 PM ET, the Timberwolves and Nuggets will kick off their first-round series at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets are the 4.5-point favorites on the point spread and are -186 on the money line. The Timberwolves are +153, and the over/under line is 208.5. TNT is carrying the game on TV.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS DENVER NUGGETS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5

This game will be played at Ball Arena at 7:00 ET on Saturday, May 4th.

WHY BET THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 113-112 in favor of the Nuggets.
  • Our projections have Nikola Jokic finishing with Nikola Jokic points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Nuggets finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.5% and knocking down 13 threes.

Minnesota picked up a 122-116 win over the Suns to close out their series in four games. The Timberwolves picked up the series-clinching win on the road. The win allowed them to close out the series 4-0.

Offensively, the Timberwolves were led by Anthony Edwards, who finished with 40 points. Edwards also added six rebounds and nine rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns added 28 points and 10 rebounds. As a team, Minnesota hit 15 threes and shot 41.7% from beyond the arc.

The Nuggets are coming off a 108-106 win over the Lakers and won the series in five games. Denver closed out the series at home and picked up their fourth win of the series. The combined total of 214 points was just below the over/under line of 216.5 points.

Offensively, the Nuggets were led by Jamal Murray's 32 points and five threes. As a team, Denver made 16 threes and shot 42.1% from beyond the arc. Michael Porter Jr. added 26 points and also made five threes. Nikola Jokic had a big game on the glass, pulling down 20 rebounds to go along with 25 points and nine assists.

Will the Timberwolves Find a Way to Win on the Road?

Minnesota has won four straight games and is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. In non-conference play, they are 19-11 compared to 37-15 against the West.

The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 44-41 this season, including going 24-18 ATS on the road. They have covered the spread in their last four games and are 11-10 as underdogs on the moneyline.

This season, Minnesota has been the underdog in 21 of their 82 games and has a record of 13-8 ATS in those games. Today, they are getting 4.5 points as the underdog.

In Minnesota's last game, they beat the Suns by a score of 122-116. The O/U line for that game was 213, and the Timberwolves were 1-point underdogs going into the game.

This season, Minnesota has an average over/under line of 220.6 and their games have averaged 219.6 points. The team's O/U record for the season is 45-41.

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA's 18th ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. On the road, they have been a little better, averaging 114.4 points per contest. The Timberwolves are 8th in field goal percentage, at 48%, and are 3rd in three-point shooting, at 38%.

Anthony Edwards is averaging 27.4 points per game over his last five games, hitting 50.6% of his shots from the field in that stretch. He also averaged 5.8 assists in those games. Rudy Gobert is averaging 12.9 rebounds this season and 16.2 points over his last five games. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 17.4 points in his last five games, while hitting 47.6% of his threes.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the best in the NBA, allowing just 106.4 points per game. They have been just as good on the road, giving up 109.5 points per contest, which is good for 3rd in the league.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 76.8% of games vs. Minnesota. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 4th in the NBA, allowing opponents to make just 11.3 threes per game.

Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up 107.6 points per contest, which is 10th in the league during that span. In terms of field goal percentage, they have been the best in the NBA this season.

Can the Nuggets Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites against the Timberwolves today. In their last game, they were also favored and won by a score of 108-106 against the Lakers. The Nuggets' ATS record this season is 40-45, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games.

Denver's O/U record for the season is 35-50-2, and their games have averaged 223.9 points per game. Today's O/U line is 208.5, and all of their games have had higher over/under lines than that.

In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are currently in 2nd place with a record of 57-25. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 33-19 and 24-6 in non-conference games.

At home, the Nuggets have an average scoring differential of +9.5 points per game. This season, they are 36-8 at home, and they have won seven straight games at home.

As the favorite, the Nuggets are 56-20 this season, and they have gone 34-40 ATS as the favorite. Their straight-up record as the favorite is 34-40, and they have an average scoring differential of +6.2 points per game. Their ATS record as the favorite is 6-5.

Overall, the Nuggets are 13th in scoring this season, at 114.9 points per game. At home, they are 10th in the league, averaging 117.8 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage, the Nuggets are 4th in the league, but they are near the bottom of the league in both three-pointers and free throws made. Denver is also one of the slower-paced teams in the league.

Nikola Jokic has been carrying the Nuggets' offense of late, averaging 28.2 points and 16.2 rebounds in his last five games. Over this stretch, he also averaged 9.8 assists. Michael Porter Jr. has been shooting the ball well of late, hitting 48.8% of his threes and averaging 22.8 points per game. Jamal Murray is averaging 23.6 points and 7.2 assists in his last five games but has hit just 40% of his shots from the field.

So far this season, the Nuggets have been a solid defensive team, ranking 6th in the NBA in points allowed at 109.4 per game. They have been especially good at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.1% from beyond the arc, which is 2nd best in the league.

Denver has also been able to limit opponents' field goal percentage, as they currently sit 7th in the NBA in that category at 46.5%. They have been successful at protecting the rim, ranking 11th in the NBA in blocked shots at 5.6 per game.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets' defense has been even better. During that stretch, they have allowed just 106.4 points per game, which is 9th best in the NBA. They have been especially good at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 29.8% from deep.