Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Free Pick 01/19/20


The San Antonio Spurs (17-23) will be at home in the AT&T Center when they square off against the Miami Heat (29-12). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points with Miami set as a 1-point favorite. Action begins at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 19, 2020, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southwest.

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Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview

The last time the Heat played, they defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder, 115-108, covering as 1-point favorites. With 14 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, Miami’s Jimmy Butler put together a solid outing. Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.1 (below their season average of 21.5) and a free throw rate of 0.226 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Oklahoma City put up marks of 13.3 and 0.190, respectively. The two teams combined to put up 223 points, which finished over the projected point total of 216.

The Spurs are hoping to rebound after being unable to cover as 9-point favorites in their 121-120 loss to the Atlanta Hawks in their last game. With 25 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, San Antonio’s DeMar DeRozan had a good performance. Atlanta made 19 of their 40 three pointers (47.5 percent). San Antonio, on the other hand, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.6 (above their season average of 20.8). The two clubs combined to record 241 points, which was over the projected point total of 230.5.

These two clubs have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 206 points, which was under the projected point total of 219.5. The Heat won 106-100, covering as 5-point favorites. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (18.6 vs. 12.8). San Antonio, on the other hand, did an excellent job of converting from the charity stripe (12-15; 80.0 percent). DeRozan had a standout performance in the game, producing 30 points, seven assists and five rebounds.

Games involving these teams have typically gone over the O/U total. Miami games have finished over 61.0 percent of the time, while San Antonio games have gone over 60.0 percent of the time. The Heat come into this game with much better straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 29-12 SU and 23-16-2 ATS, while the Spurs are 17-23 SU and 14-24-2 ATS.

San Antonio could put on a ball-control clinic in this contest. San Antonio ranks fifth in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.3 percent), while Miami forces the seventh-fewest turnovers (13.1 percent). Also, put-back points figure to be few and far between for the Heat. They rank 24th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 21.4 percent, while the Spurs are fourth-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 79.5 percent).

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs Prediction

Prediction: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over


Betting Notes:

The Heat rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (33.5) while the Spurs rank 29th (28.0).

Miami ranks 23rd in points in the paint per game (45.4) while San Antonio ranks 28th (44.5).

Miami averages 25.2 assists per game, which ranks 11th in the league. San Antonio ranks 25th in assists allowed per game (25.5).

Miami is 10-11-1 ATS on the road with 13 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.

San Antonio is 6-15 ATS at home with 13 overs, 7 unders and 1 push.

Miami is 5-1 when they allow below 100 points, while San Antonio is 1-0.

In games where they score over 100 points, the Spurs are 17-19 and the Heat are 28-7.

The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while the Spurs rank 15th (45.7).

San Antonio ranks fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while Miami ranks 26th (18.7).

The Spurs rank eighth in blocks per game (5.7) while the Heat rank 27th (4.1).

The Heat rank 27th in second chance points per game (11.7) while the Spurs rank 28th (11.6).

San Antonio ranks eighth in fast break points per game (14.6) while Miami ranks 25th (10.7).

Bettings Trends:

San Antonio is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Across its past five outings, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.

The Spurs’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 1.2 for the season.

During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 115.4 points per game (3.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.4 points per game (3.6 above their season average).

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