Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Pick 01/17/20


The Oklahoma City Thunder (23-18) will be at home in Chesapeake Energy Arena when they clash with the Miami Heat (28-12). Action begins at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 17, 2020, and it can be seen on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Preview

The Heat were victorious over the San Antonio Spurs in their last matchup, 106-100, covering as 5-point favorites. With 14 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists, Miami’s Bam Adebayo played well. The Heat held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.8 (below their season average of 21.0) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.563 (above their season average of 0.547). The two teams combined to score 206 points, which came in under the O/U total of 219.5.

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The last time the Thunder played, they were 1-point favorites and fell to the Toronto Raptors, 130-121. With 16 points, 11 assists and five rebounds, Chris Paul had a solid performance for Oklahoma City. Toronto held the Thunder to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.4 (below their season average of 20.1). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (19-20; 95.0 percent). The two clubs collectively scored 251 points, which finished well over the O/U total of 213.

This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. Each won one of the two games played against each other last season. In the most recent contest, the Heat won 116-107. Miami had a much better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 16.1). Oklahoma City, on the other hand, did an excellent job of making free throws (21-27; 77.8 percent).

These two teams are complete opposites in terms of the O/U total. Games featuring Miami have gone over 60.0 percent of the time, while 56.1 percent of Oklahoma City games have finished under. The Heat hold the sizable advantage straight up (SU) (28-12 vs. 23-18), but the Thunder have been better against the spread (ATS) (26-14-1 vs. 22-16-2).

Half-court execution will be critical when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Oklahoma City ranks 24th in possessions per game (100.9) and Miami is 22nd (101.1). Moreover, the Heat rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.234), while the Thunder rank third in opponents’ FTA rate (0.163).

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder Odds Prediction

Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over


Betting Notes:

The Thunder rank 17th in blocks per game (4.8) while the Heat rank 27th (4.2).

Miami ranks 25th in second chance points per game (11.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 28th (11.1).

Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Oklahoma City ranks 10th (44.7).

Miami is 9-11-1 ATS on the road with 12 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.

At home, Oklahoma City is 11-9-1 ATS with 11 unders and 10 overs.

When holding opponents under 100 points, Miami is 5-1 and Oklahoma City is 7-3.

The Heat are 27-7 when they score above 100 points, while the Thunder are 22-11.

The Heat rank 24th in fast break points per game (10.9) while the Thunder rank 29th (9.4).

Oklahoma City ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (31.5) while Miami ranks 28th (36.9).

The Thunder rank ninth in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.1) while the Heat rank 26th (18.8).

The Thunder rank 18th in steals per game (7.5) while the Heat rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).

Miami ranks 11th in assists per game (25.1) while Oklahoma City ranks 26th (21.7).

Bettings Trends:

Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Over its last five outings, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.

The Thunder’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, up from 1.6 for the season.

During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 116.8 points per game (5.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.0 points per game (4.2 above their season average).


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