Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies Free Pick 12/16/19


The Memphis Grizzlies (9-17) will be at home in FedExForum when they challenge the Miami Heat (19-7). Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 16, 2019, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Southeast.

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Preview

The Heat were victorious over the Dallas Mavericks in their last outing, 122-118, despite being 8.5-point underdogs. With 18 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists, Bam Adebayo led the way for Miami with his first triple-double of the season. The Heat knocked down 28 of their 34 free throws (82.4 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 7.0 (better than their season average of 14.5). The two teams combined to put up 240 points, which came in well over the O/U total of 215.5.

The last time the Grizzlies were in action, they comfortably covered the 1.5-point spread against the Washington Wizards, 128-111. With 27 points on 10-for-17 shooting, Dillon Brooks was Memphis’ high scorer. The Grizzlies had a ridiculous effective field goal percentage of 0.637 (above their season average of 0.514) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.1 (above their season average of 20.9). The two clubs collectively scored 239 points, which finished just over the projected point total of 237.

Second-chance points could be scarce for Memphis in this contest. The Grizzlies rank 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (21.1 percent), while Miami ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.9 percent). Additionally, the Heat are among the NBA’s elite at getting to the line, ranking second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.239). The Grizzlies, meanhwile, rank 27th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.231).

Of Miami’s 26 games, 14 have finished over the O/U total, while 14 of Memphis’ 26 games have finished under the O/U total. The Heat come into this game with considerably better straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 19-7 SU and 16-8-2 ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-17 SU and 11-15 ATS.

Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Jimmy Butler, who has averaged 26 points,8.8 rebounds,7.0 assists,1.6 steals, while the Grizzlies have received solid contributions from Jaren Jackson Jr. (25 points,1.6 blocks).

These two clubs have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 221 points, which was over the projected point total of 214. The Heat won 120-101, covering as 7-point favorites. The Heat dominated every facet of the game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.388 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.2. The Grizzlies were 0.225 and 18.4, respectively, for those same stats. In the victory, Justise Winslow led all scorers with 27 points.

Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies Odds Prediction

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Grizzlies, ATS Winner – Grizzlies, O/U – Over


Betting Notes:

Miami averages 17.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. Memphis ranks 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.5).

Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.4) while Memphis ranks 15th (45.6).

The Heat rank 16th in three pointers attempted per game (33.3) while the Grizzlies rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (35.0).

Memphis is 6-9 ATS at home, while Miami is 7-6-1 ATS on the road.

Bettings Trends:

Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Across its past five games, Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.

The Grizzlies have outscored opponents by an average of 1.0 point in their last five games. For the season, Memphis has been defeated by an average of 6.3 points.

During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 117.8 points per game (5.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.0 points per game (5.1 above their season average).

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