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At 10:00 ET, the Miami Heat will travel to Ball Arena in Denver to take on the Nuggets. This non-conference matchup will be aired on TNT.

Currently, the Nuggets are favored by 4.5 points and have a moneyline of -194. The over/under line is set at 214.5. Denver is 40-19 on the season and has won four straight games, while Miami is 33-25 and has won five in a row. The Heat are 5th in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Southeast Division, while the Nuggets are 3rd in the Western Conference and 3rd in the Northwest Division.

MIAMI HEAT VS DENVER NUGGETS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Denver Nuggets -4.5

This game will be played at Ball Arena at 10:00 ET on Thursday, February 29th.

WHY BET THE DENVER NUGGETS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 123-114 in favor of the Nuggets.
  • Our projections have Nikola Jokic finishing with Nikola Jokic points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Nuggets finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.0% and knocking down 13 threes.

Is a Road Win Possible for Miami?

Miami has been the underdog in 25 of their 58 games this season and has gone 10-15 in those games. As the underdog, they have an average scoring differential of -1.4 points per game. Their ATS record as the underdog is 13-12, and they have covered the spread in their last five games as the underdog.

The Heat have an O/U record of 22-36 this season, and 48 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today's line of 214.5. In their games this season, the average combined scoring total is 220.5 points.

Miami's ATS record for the season is 28-27, and they have covered the spread in eight straight games. On the road, they are 16-11 ATS compared to 12-16 ATS at home.

In their last game, the Heat defeated the Trail Blazers by a score of 106-96. The O/U line for that game was 212 points. Miami was favored by 7 points going into the game, giving them an ATS win.

The Heat are currently 5th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 33-25. In the East, they are 22-16 against other conference teams and 11-9 in non-conference games.

On the road this season, the Heat are averaging 108.3 points per game, which is 28th in the NBA. Overall, they are 27th in scoring at 110.6 points per game. So far, Miami has outscored the league average in just 34.5% of their games.

When it comes to shooting, the Heat are 24th in field goal percentage at 46%. They are also 27th in two-point shooting at 52%. From beyond the arc, Miami is 7th in three-point shooting at 37%.

So far this season, the Heat are 21st in assists at 25.9 per game. In terms of pace, they are 28th at 96.3 possessions per game.

Miami's defense has been playing well, ranking 3rd in the NBA with 109.9 points allowed per game. In their previous matchup vs. the Trail Blazers, the Heat's defense struggled, giving up a field goal percentage of 52% leading to 96 points.

Will the Nuggets Secure A Victory as Home Favorites?

The Nuggets have won four straight games and are currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 40-19. In non-conference play, they are 17-6 compared to 23-13 against the West.

At home, the Nuggets have a scoring differential of +10.0 points per game. This season, they are 23-5 at home and have covered the spread in two straight games. Overall, they are 14-13 ATS at home.

Denver's ATS record for the season is 26-31, and they have covered the spread in their last two games at home. As the favorite, they are 37-13 and have gone 22-26 vs. the spread as the favorite.

In Denver's last game, they beat the Kings by a score of 117-96. The O/U line for that game was 228 points, and the Nuggets were favored by 9.5 points. This improved their record to 21-37-1 on the season.

This year, the average combined scoring total in Nuggets games is 225 points, which is slightly lower than today's O/U line of 214.5. Denver's games have gone under the O/U line in their last two games.

At home, the Nuggets are averaging 119.0 points per game, which is 9th in the NBA. Overall, they are 17th in scoring at 114.6 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, Denver is 6th in the league at 49%. However, they are just 15th in three-point shooting at 36%.

When it comes to pace, the Nuggets are 29th in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game. In terms of free throw attempts, they are 28th in the league. In terms of offensive rebounds, Denver is 11th in the NBA.

So far, the Nuggets have outscored the NBA scoring average in 47.5% of their games. In terms of assists, they are 5th in the league. Over their last four games, Denver has outscored their season average, but they have also seen a decrease in scoring in their last three contests.

Denver's defense has been playing well, ranking 7th in the NBA with 110.4 points allowed per game. Most recently, the Nuggets' defense put together a solid performance, giving up just 96 points to the Kings.