Louisville at Florida State NCAA Football Betting Pick 9/21/19


The Seminoles (-8) are gearing up to welcome their ACC counterpart Louisville Cardinals to Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium. ESPN will broadcast the action and this afternoon game is scheduled to start at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Odds 9/21/2019

The spread for this ACC game is placed at 8 points in favor of Florida State. The Cardinals are currently getting +260 moneyline odds while the Seminoles are -340. This ACC matchup will probably offer multiple in-game betting scenarios. The over/under has been set at 61.5 points.

The game’s total has been driven up after originally being set at 59. The opening line (-8) has stayed consistent.

The Cardinals are 2-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any ACC competition yet. The Seminoles are 1-2 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play. The Cardinals have recorded 0.0 units so far and are 3-0 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 1-2.

The Seminoles have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 3.7 units. The team is 0-2-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-0.

The Cards are coming off a resounding 38-21 victory over Western Kentucky last week where Malik Cunningham completed eight passes for only 119 yards and two touchdowns. Javian Hawkins (93 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Cunningham (46 yards on 16 carries) led the running attack. Chatarius Atwell (four receptions, 141 yards, three TDs) and Seth Dawkins (three catches, 21 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

A week ago, Virginia knocked off this Florida State crew by a score of 31-24. James Blackman completed 22-of-37 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns. Cam Akers (78 rushing yards on 18 attempts) handled the running attack while Keyshawn Helton (five receptions, 34 yards, one TD) and Tamorrion Terry (four catches, 78 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Louisville has run the ball on 68 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Florida State has a rush percentage of 49.1 percent. The Cardinals have produced 260 rush yards per game and have five scores on the ground this year. The Noles are logging 138 rushing yards per contest and have four total rush TDs.

Judging by the early season results, the Cardinals may hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game, as their running backs has produced 5.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Seminoles have registered 3.9 yards per carry and allowed 3.9 YPC to opponents.

The Cards have averaged 186 yards in the air overall and have seven passing TDs so far. The Noles have put up 281 pass yards per outing and have nine total pass scores.

Defensively, Louisville seems to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 134 yards and pass for 160 yards per game. Florida State has allowed 170.7 rushing yards per game and 314.3 to opponents in the air. The Cards are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.23 to opposing QBs, while the Noles have given up a 6.07 ANY/A.

Jawon Pass is up to 330 passing yards this season. He’s completed 24-of-46 attempts with four passing touchdowns and one interception. Pass has a 6.74 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 12.16 over the last two outings.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from Louisville in this one. Javian Hawkins (215 rushing yards, one rush TD this season), Chatarius Atwell (188 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Malik Cunningham (46 rush yards, 0 receiving yards) have each played key roles of late.

James Blackman has accounted for 561 yards, six TDs and zero INTs for Florida State. His ANY/A stands at 8.27 for the season and 6.37 over his past two outings.

We also expect the Florida State offense to mix it up this Saturday. Cam Akers, Tamorrion Terry and Tre’ McKitty have combined to account for 561 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns as a trio over the last couple of outings.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Florida State earned the win 28-24.

Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida State Seminoles Free Pick

SU Winner – Florida State, ATS Winner – Florida State, O/U – Over


Team Betting Trends

The Over/Under for Louisville’s last game going into it was 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-21 victory over Western Kentucky.

Louisville has rushed for 6.0 yards per carry over its past two matchups.

Florida State has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last two.

The Florida State offense has lost three fumbles this season while Louisville has let four get away.

In its last three games, Louisville is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Florida State’s previous match was set at 53.5. The over cashed in the 31-24 loss to Virginia.

Over its last three matchups, Florida State is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The Cardinals offense has registered three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Seminoles have put up four such plays.

The Louisville defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Florida State has given up zero such plays.

The Louisville offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Florida State has created four such runs.

Both defenses have allowed three rushing play of 20 or more yards. The Cardinals have given up 15 running plays of 10+ yards while the Seminoles have given up 18 such plays.

Each team defense has recorded nine sacks this season.

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