Louisiana vs. South Alabama College Football Betting Pick 11/16/19


A couple of teams that like running the football, Jaguars of South Alabama (-28) are gearing up to greet their in-conference foe Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Interested parties are able to tune in to the action on ESPN+ and the game is scheduled to kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Louisiana vs. South Alabama Betting Odds 11/16/2019

Louisiana is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 28 points to South Alabama. The over/under has been set at 53.5 points. If one team gets out in front early, it’ll likely create a decent betting opportunity in-game.

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Odds have shifted from where they were originally posted. The line opened at 25 and the game’s total hasn’t changed after being initially set at 53.5.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against SBC opponents. The Jaguars are 1-8 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play. The surprising Ragin’ Cajuns have gained 3.0 units so far in 2019 and are 8-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-5.

The Jaguars have lost 5.0 units this season. The team is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-7.

Louisiana enters this matchup on a zero-game losing skid while South Alabama has won each of its last zero. The Ragin’ Cajuns are coming off a resounding 48-7 victory over Coastal Carolina last week. the Ragin’ Cajuns completed 30-of-37 passes for 339 yards and three touchdowns. Levi Lewis went 26-for-30 for 296 yards and three touchdowns while Jaiave Magalei completed four-of-seven for 43 yards. Elijah Mitchell (52 yards on 10 rush attempts) and Chris Smith (99 yards on eight carries, one TD) spearheaded the running attack in the win while Ja’Marcus Bradley (seven receptions, 71 yards, one TD) and Peter Leblanc (five catches, 33 yards) shared the receiving duties.

South Alabama most-recently lost a 30-28 game to Texas State. The defensive secondary allowed the Bobcats to air it out for 373 yards and three touchdowns. Hutch White had a solid showing for Texas State, recording 165 yards on 10 catches. For South Alabama, Desmond Trotter completed 13-of-17 passes for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Tra Minter (87 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and Carlos Davis (63 yards on 16 carries, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Kawaan Baker (four receptions, 34 yards) and Jalen Wayne (two catches, 22 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Louisiana has run the ball on 60.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Alabama has a rush percentage of 63.9 percent. The Ragin’ Cajuns have rushed for 281 yards/game (including 247 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 32 scores via handoffs this year. The Jags are averaging 154 rushing yards per contest (136 in conference) and have 10 total rush TDs.

Judging by the numbers this season, it seems like the Ragin’ Cajuns ought to have the edge when it comes to RB effectiveness, since their backfield has logged 6.7 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Jaguars have recorded 3.7 yards per carry and given up 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have tallied 218 yards/game through the air overall (200 per game against conference opposition) and have 15 passing TDs so far. The Jags have put up 144 pass yards per outing (141.4 in the SBC) and have eight total pass scores.

Defensively, Louisiana seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has let opponents run for an average of 147 yards and throw for 191 yards per game. South Alabama has allowed 201.8 yards per game on the ground and 212.6 to opponents in the air. The Ragin’ Cajuns are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.91 to opponents, while the Jags have given up a 7.34 ANY/A.

Trotter has put up 164 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. Trotter’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 9.90 for the year and 7.83 over his last two games. In the other huddle, Lewis is up to 1,588 passing yards this season, and has connected on 135-of-200 attempts with 12 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions. Lewis has a 7.79 ANY/A for the year, although that number is 11.35 over the past two games.

When these two squads met a year ago, Louisiana emerged victorious by a final score of 48-38.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. South Alabama Jaguars Bedding Prediction

SU Winner – South Alabama, ATS Winner – South Alabama, O/U – Over


Team Betting Trends

The Over/Under for Louisiana’s last game going into it was 58. The under cashed in the team’s 48-7 win over Coastal Carolina.

Louisiana has produced 6.4 yards per carry over its past three games and 6.1 over its last two.

South Alabama has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.0 over its last two.

Both teams have lost eight fumbles this season.

In its last three matches, Louisiana is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

Louisiana has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a 10-point defeat to Appalachian State on October 9th accounting for the only loss over that span.

The O/U for South Alabama’s last match was set at 41.5. The over cashed in the 30-28 loss to Texas State.

In its last three games, South Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Ragin’ Cajuns offense has produced three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Jaguars have accounted for four such plays.

The Louisiana defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while South Alabama has given up seven such plays.

The Louisiana offense has created 26 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while South Alabama has created 12 such runs.

The Ragin’ Cajuns defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Jaguars have given up 16 such runs.

The Louisiana defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times this season. South Alabama has registered 13 sacks.

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