The Miami Heat (31-13) can continue a nine-game home winning streak when they square off with the Los Angeles Clippers (31-14) at AmericanAirlines Arena. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 24, 2020, and it can be seen on ESPN.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Miami Heat ATS Preview
The Clippers lost to the Atlanta Hawks in their last contest, 102-95, despite being 5-point favorites. Montrezl Harrell had a good game for Los Angeles, leading the team in scoring with 30 points on 12-for-23 shooting. Atlanta had an offensive rebounding percentage of 38.3 (above their season average of 20.7). Los Angeles, meanwhile, had a free throw rate of 0.321 (above their season average of 0.229). The two teams combined to put up 197 points, which finished well under the projected point total of 229.5.
In the Heat’s previous game, they knocked off the Washington Wizards, 134-129, but they failed to cover as 10-point favorites. Miami’s Jimmy Butler had a solid performance, contributing 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. The Heat knocked down 31 of their 36 free throws (86.1 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.606 (above their season average of 0.547). The two clubs collectively scored 263 points, which finished well over the O/U total of 229.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, this appears to be a balanced matchup. The upper-echelon Miami offense ranks third in the NBA in that metric at 0.549, while the top-notch Los Angeles defense is ranked fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.503). Also, the Clippers, who rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (24.8 percent), will face off against the Heat, who rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.7 percent).
In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Games involving Los Angeles have gone under 55.6 percent of the time, while 61.4 percent of Miami games have gone over. Both teams have solid straight up (SU) records (31-14 for Los Angeles; 31-13 for Miami), but the Heat hold a slight edge against the spread (ATS). Miami is 24-18-2 ATS, while the Clippers are 23-21-1.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Clippers, it’s been Landry Shamet, who has averaged 11 points, while the Heat have gotten great contributions from Kendrick Nunn (24 points,3.4 assists,1.2 steals).
This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year, after splitting two games last season. In the last matchup, the Clippers won 111-99. The Clippers played a nearly perfect game. They had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 6.9 and a solid effective field goal percentage of 0.571. The Heat put up marks of 13.1 and 0.518, respectively, for those same stats.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Miami Heat Odds Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
The Clippers rank third in rebounds per game (48.1) while the Heat rank 17th (45.4).
Los Angeles averages 49.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Miami ranks ninth in points allowed in the paint per game (46.1).
Los Angeles ranks 14th in blocks per game (5.0) while Miami ranks 26th (4.1).
Los Angeles is 10-12 ATS on the road, while Miami is 14-6-1 ATS at home.
In 22 road games, the Clippers have 13 unders and 9 overs.
The Heat have 14 overs and 7 unders in 21 home games.
Miami is 5-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Los Angeles is 12-0.
The Heat are 30-8 when they reach the century mark, while the Clippers are 29-9.
The Clippers rank 18th in three pointers attempted per game (32.6) while the Heat rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.5).
Los Angeles ranks second in second chance points per game (15.0) while Miami ranks 27th (11.8).
The Clippers rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while the Heat rank 25th (15.8).
Miami ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Los Angeles ranks 22nd (14.5).
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.
Over its last five games, Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, down from 3.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Clippers have scored an average of 117.6 points per game (2.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (2.0 below their season average).