Liberty at Virginia College Football Betting Pick 11/23/19


The Liberty Flames (+17) aren’t traveling far to face the Virginia Cavaliers at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium. Kickoff for this important game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action live on CHSS.

Liberty at Virginia Betting Odds 11/23/2019

This game’s spread is placed at 17 points in favor of Virginia. The Flames are currently getting +710 moneyline odds while the Cavaliers are -1200. This game will probably offer some in-game betting opportunities. The over/under is set at 55 points.

Sharp bettors have been siding with both the Flames and the over. The opening line was originally -19 and the O/U was initially set at only 53.5.

The Flames are 6-4 straight up (SU) while the Cavaliers are 7-3 SU. The Flames are down 1.4 units so far and 5-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 4-6.

The Cavaliers have gained 1.1 units this season. The team is 4-5-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-4.

The Flames are looking to get back in stride after a 31-24 defeat to BYU on November 9. Stephen Calvert completed 27 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Frankie Hickson (79 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Joshua Mack (40 yards on 12 carries) led the running attack in the loss while Antonio Gandy-Golden (10 receptions, 162 yards, one TD) and Damian King (five catches, 50 yards) handled the receiving duties.

The Virginia Wahoos just earned a 33-28 win over Georgia Tech. The defensive unit allowed the Yellow Jackets to run for 143 yards on 32 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Jordan Mason was a bright spot in the loss, posting 94 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts for Georgia Tech. For Virginia, Bryce Perkins completed 24-of-35 passes for 258 yards and one touchdown. Perkins (106 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) and Wayne Taulapapa (37 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Terrell Jana (nine receptions, 108 yards) and Joe Reed (five catches, 27 yards, one TD) led the Virginia pass-catchers.

In terms of offensive play selection, each team has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Liberty has run the ball on 48.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Virginia has an overall rush percentage of 47.2. The Flames have run for 143 yards/game and have 18 scores via handoffs this year. The Wahoos are averaging 113 rush yards per contest and have 21 total rushing TDs.

The Flames have averaged 300 yards in the air overall and have 24 passing TDs so far. The Wahoos have recorded 255 pass yards per outing and have 13 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Liberty has allowed 193 rush yards and 231 pass yards per game. Virginia has been a bit better than that, allowing 122.8 yards per game on the ground and 193.5 to opposing teams in the air. The Wahoos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.72 to opposing QBs, while the Flames have given up a 6.60 ANY/A.

Calvert has amassed 2,467 pass yards this season, and has completed 181-of-300 attempts with 19 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions. Calvert has a pristine 7.98 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 12.45 over the past two outings.

In the hosts’ locker room, Bryce Perkins has put up 2,053 yards, 10 TDs and eight INTs. Perkins’ ANY/A sits at 5.07 for the season and 8.72 over his past two outings.

When these two teams faced each other a year ago, Virginia knocked Liberty off by three touchdowns 45-24.

Liberty Flames vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Prediction

SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – Virginia, O/U – Under


Team Betting Trends

The O/U for Liberty’s previous game was 63. The under cashed in the team’s 31-24 loss to BYU.

Liberty has averaged 4.9 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.9 over its last two.

Virginia has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.2 over its last two.

The Virginia offense has lost six fumbles this season while Liberty has let eight get away.

Over its last three contests, Liberty is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Virginia’s previous matchup going into it was 46.5. The over cashed in the 33-28 win over Georgia Tech.

Over its last three games, Virginia is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Flames offense has produced 14 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Cavaliers have put up four such plays.

The Liberty defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Virginia has given up eight such plays.

The Liberty offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Virginia has created seven such runs.

The Flames defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Cavaliers have given up eight such runs.

The Virginia defense has recorded 34 sacks on the year while Liberty has just 28.


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