Las Vegas NFL Circa Million Picks & Consensus Week 17

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The first season of the Circa Sports Million comes to a close this weekend. A chief competitor to the Westgate SuperContest was a welcomed sight that brought 1,875 entrants to the Golden Gate or The D to plop down $1,000 to sign up for the contest. Originally expected to have an overlay with a guaranteed $1.5 million prize pool, the Circa simply wound up with a $1,875,000 prize pool because it was a rake-free contest.

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We’ll see if that policy stands in 2020, but the first season of the contest has been a success. The lucrative quarter prizes are the biggest draw of this event, as the prizes for having the best record from Week 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, and 13-17 were bigger than the prize for finishing second for the full-season contest. That likely won’t sit well with those that made good picks for the full season and could be a change that takes place for next season.

Still, it incentivized those that got off to a bad start to keep trying and to keep playing. They still had chances. That is a nice feature. If you get off to a bad start in the SuperContest, your only hope is the $15,000 Mini Contest over Weeks 15-17. The Circa prize structure gave you four shots at $143,750. Even though the odds are long, it was something that drew in a much larger field than anticipated.

Here in Week 17, the full-season prizes, including the first-place prize of $1 million, are up for grabs. The final quarter prize of $143,750 hangs in the balance. It will be a very happy weekend for some and a very disappointing weekend for others, which is often the nature of the beast in these contests.

In the race for the $1 million, I would say that five entries have a chance. Booty Blockers leads the field with 55.5 points. Ace2019 is second with 54.5 points. Then there is a three-way tie for third between The Nature Boy, TheBetBot.com, and Live Odds with 53 points. It would likely require a 5-0 and some help from those tied for third place, but stranger things have happened in what could turn out to be a very high-variance Week 17.

SD-2, Gamblers Anonymous, and MJTADE are all tied for sixth with 52 points. Pro’s And Con’s and Bobby T-1 are tied for ninth with 51.5 points. Only 10 paid positions in this contest is a bummer, but that will be one of the focal points when adjustments are made for next season.

The race for the quarter prize is fast and furious. Right now, Flip Flop leads at 16-3-1 and the Flip Flop-2 entry is among eight entries that are tied for second with 16 points, either at 16-4 or 15-3-2. There are five additional entries tied at 15-4-1.

Much like the SuperContest, half-points matter in a big way this week. A mere push will be the difference between cashing and not cashing or several thousand dollars in prize money. Talk about a bad beat!

We’ve had our share of bad beats and bad picks to go along with some fortunate winners and some good picks this season at BangTheBook.com. We opted to hop in the Circa Sports Million with the likelihood of an overlay, but the fact that an “admin fee” wasn’t pulled from the potential winnings was still an attractive feature even after the field blew past 1,500.

The BangTheBook.com-1 entry has done quite well this season with a 44-33-3 record. The BangTheBook.com-2 entry of host Adam Burke from BangTheBook Radio has endured two 0-5 weeks to sit at 37-41-2. Those are a cardinal sin in this contest and are impossible to come back from. Well, except for the quarter prizes, which is why this contest is so attractive.

We’ll look to finish out the season strong and determine our season-long dinner bet with these Week 17 selections:

BangTheBook.com-1 (44-33-3, 57.14%)

1 Titans -3.5

7 Colts -3.5

13 Saints -13

16 Giants +4.5

17 Steelers -1.5

 

BangTheBook.com-2 (37-41-2, 47.44%)

9 Falcons PK

16 Giants +4.5

18 Ravens +1.5

23 Packers -12.5

25 Chiefs -8

We’ve got some chalky cards this week with six favorites and a pick ‘em across our 10 selections. The Giants match as an underdog on both cards and the dinner bet will be decided in Baltimore between the Steelers and Ravens. The dinner bet sits at 6-4 for the -2 (Podcast in the SC) entry, though individual games are split down the middle at 3-3.

You can hear Adam’s thoughts on the SuperContest and the Circa Million on Friday editions of BangTheBook Radio.

The Circa Million field is at 50.52% heading into Week 17 off of an outstanding 55.13% win rate last week. The consensus record is 118-112-5 with a top-five consensus record of 40-37-4 thanks to a matching pick count for the fifth-most popular pick somewhere along the line.

Here are the Week 17 lines, pick counts, and consensus for the 2019 Circa Million:

1 Titans 487 (consensus #1)

2 Texans* (+3.5) 147

 

3 Browns 222

4 Bengals* (+2.5) 215

 

5 Vikings* 210

6 Bears (+1.5) 379 (consensus #5)

 

7 Colts 382 (consensus #4)

8 Jaguars* (+3.5) 93

 

9 Falcons 261

10 Buccaneers* (PK) 190

 

11 Cowboys* 155

12 Redskins (+10.5) 293

 

13 Saints 165

14 Panthers* (+13) 103

 

15 Eagles 217

16 Giants* (+4.5) 465 (consensus #2)

 

17 Steelers 156

18 Ravens* (+1.5) 324

 

19 Bills* 206

20 Jets (+1.5) 199

 

21 Patriots* 161

22 Dolphins (+16) 256

 

23 Packers 128

24 Lions* (+12.5) 175

 

25 Chiefs* 391 (consensus #3)

26 Chargers (+8.5) 126

 

27 Rams* 269

28 Cardinals (+3.5) 112

 

29 49ers 286

30 Seahawks* (+3.5) 366

 

31 Broncos* 230

32 Raiders (+3.5) 221

The top-five consensus is the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, and Chicago Bears. Some line value on the Bears allows them to sneak into the top five with everybody sitting out for Minnesota. The fade of the Jaguars that we saw in the SuperContest continues here and so do the buy signs on the Titans, Giants, and Chiefs.

Listen for host Adam Burke’s SuperContest/Circa Million thoughts for the BangTheBook.com-2 entry every Friday on BangTheBook Radio.

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