LaLiga Pick of the Day Round 34 – Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia (4/24/19)

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Valencia is only two points behind the fourth-placed Getafe and cannot afford to lose this match but the Bats are winless here since 2011. The game between Atletico Madrid and Valencia will take place at the Wanda Metropolitano on April 24th, 2019.

Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia 

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Three-Way: 1: Atletico -125; X: +240 Draw; 2: Valencia +400 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Atletico: -118; Valencia +108

Total 2.5 goals: Over +120; Under -152

ATLETICO MADRID

A 1-0 win at Eibar last time out gave Atletico Madrid their fourth La Liga victory in their last five games (W4, L1), and also continued a trend that has seen just one side score in their previous ten league outings (W8, L2). Only three of those games were decided by just a single-goal margin, so a match with another clear winner could be on the cards.

However, nine of those ten fixtures also involved under 2.5 goals, so it will probably come as no surprise that Atletico has registered the second lowest match-goals-per game average in LL (2.1), or that they have recorded a clean sheet in 75% of their home matches this league campaign.

Diego Simeone will be without suspended Diego Costa and injured Jose Gimenez (toe), while Lucas Hernandez (knee) and Stefan Savic (muscle) are listed as doubtful to face Valencia.

Betting Trends:

  • Antoine Griezmann has scored in Atletico’s last two home victories and has 14 LL goals this term
  • Atletico has been drawing 0-0 at half-time in 50% of their LL home fixtures
  • Atletico is yet to see a goal scored in the first 15 minutes of any of their top-flight home matches this term

VALENCIA

With four wins in their last five LL games (W4, L1), Champions League-chasing Valencia is finding form at the right time. However, those victories haven’t been complete walkovers, with three of those four involving both teams scoring.

The visitors have certainly offered entertainment in their recent LL road trips, with a penalty being awarded in each of their last four top-flight away games (W3, L1). Those games have also seen a combined four goals after the 75th minute, as well as two red cards.

Marcelino cannot count on Denis Cheryshev (knee), Geoffrey Kondogbia (thigh), and Rodrigo (suspension), while Cristiano Piccini (contusion) is listed as questionable.

Betting Trends:

  • In-form Goncalo Guedes netted a brace last time out, bringing his tally to five across his last four competitive appearances for Valencia
  • Both teams have scored in seven of Valencia’s last nine LL away fixtures

Atletico Madrid won six out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L1) including five of the last seven, while Los Colchoneros were victorious in the past three meetings at Wanda Metropolitano. The rivals played 1-1 in a reverse fixture this season and Valencia is without a win at this venue since 2011 but they will be highly motivated to get a positive result here and I am backing the visitors to snatch a point on Wednesday.

MY PICK: Draw (+240)

ADDITIONAL PICK: There’s been under 2.5 goals in four of the last five H2H duels and even though both teams failed to score in Atletico’s previous 12 games, I am backing both rivals to find the back of the net here.

MY PICK: BTTS YES (+114)

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