LaLiga Match of the Day Round 25 – Sevilla vs. Barcelona (2/23/19)

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Los Rojiblancos are struggling in LaLiga at the moment but they are still in the 4th position and will be looking to stay there after a derby match with Blaugrana. The game between Sevilla and Barcelona will take place at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán on February 23rd, 2019.

Sevilla vs. Barcelona

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Three-Way: 1: Sevilla +250; X: +300 Draw; 2: Barcelona -105 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Sevilla -102; Barcelona -105

Total 3 goals: Over -135; Under +108

SEVILLA

The Europa League progression may have boosted morale, but Sevilla remains with just one win in their last five La Liga matches (W1, D1, L3). However, their home form is promising (W7, D3, L1), although in this encounter they face a strong traveling Barcelona side that’s recorded the exact same results away.

Sevilla has been an impressive second-half side at the Sánchez Pizjuán this league campaign, with only two teams registering a better second-half goal difference at home than Sevilla’s +11. In fact, no LL club has conceded less than the three total goals they’ve conceded after half-time at home.

Los Rojiblancos responded to a massive 3-0 league loss to Villarreal with a 2-0 win over Lazio in the second leg of the Europa League 1/16 finals, progressing to the 1/8 finals with a 3-0 result on aggregate, and they will face Slavia Prague in the next round. Wissam Ben Yedder opened the scoring in the 20th minute and Pablo Sarabia set the final score in the 78th minute, while Franco Vasquez and Adam Marusic received red cards.

Pablo Machin will be without Nolito who is out with a broken leg, while Sergio Escudero (muscle), Maxime Gonalons (broken ankle), Jesus Navas (groin), Aleix Vidal (muscle), and Joris Gnagnon (thigh) are all listed as doubtful to face Barcelona on Saturday.

Betting Trends:

  • Wissam Ben Yedder’s goal against Lazio midweek was his 21st of the season – 14 came at home
  • Sevilla scored the opener in seven of their 11 home league fixtures
  • Across Sevilla’s last five LaLiga home games, there’s been an average of six yellow cards shown per match

BARCELONA

Barca may top the league by a seven-point cushion, but their failure to score in their last two competitive away matches (D2) is a first since April 2017. Despite that, the visitors average of two goals scored per LaLiga away match is the division’s highest ahead of the round, and that, coupled with a league-low average of 0.73 goals conceded per away game, makes them a force to be reckoned with.

Unsurprisingly, the visitors have been trailing at half-time just once on the road this LL campaign (HT: W5, D5, L1), although they have scored in both halves in just 36.36% of those away matches. Barcelona extended their unbeaten streak to seven games but they drew four of the previous five, including the opening leg of the Champions League 1/8 finals against Lyon on the road, as the match ended without goals, 0-0.

Blaugrana created more chances but only five shots on target from 24 shots in total and now they need to score in the returning leg if they want to keep their Champions League dream alive. They will be huge favorites in that clash but Lyon could ruin their plans with an early goal, so that story is far from over.

Ernesto Valverde cannot count on Arthur (muscle), Rafinha (knee), and Jasper Cillessen (calf), while Thomas Vermaelen is questionable with a calf injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Lionel Messi has scored 33 goals against Sevilla – more than he’s netted against any other club
  • Barcelona won 63.64% of the LL away games they started as the favorite (W7, D3, L1)

Barcelona won eight out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L1) including four of the last five, while the Blaugrana was victorious in three of the past five meetings at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Sevilla won the latest duel at home when they beat Barca 2-0 in the opening leg of the Copa del Rey quarter-finals but Barcelona destroyed them in the returning leg with a 6-1 victory. Sevilla suffered only one home loss in the league this season and their record at home currently stands at W7, D3, L1, the same as Barcelona’s away record, and I am going with a draw here as I cannot separate the two sides at the moment.

MY PICK: Draw (+300)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Five out of the previous seven H2H meetings produced goals on both ends with over 2.5 goals, which was the case in the most recent duel when Barca secured a massive 6-1 win, and I would be surprised if one of the teams keep the net intact in this one and that’s why I am backing BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-138)