La Liga Match of the Day Round 8 – Valencia vs. Barcelona (10/7/18)

0

This weekend’s La Liga action concludes with a bang at the Mestalla, as Valencia eye their first home win of the season against a Barcelona side looking to arrest a worrying winless league run. The game between Valencia and Barcelona will take place at the Estadio de Mestalla on October 7th, 2018.

VALENCIA vs. BARCELONA

Three-Way: 1: Valencia +375; X: +320 Draw; 2: Barcelona -156 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +1: Valencia -141; Barcelona +129

Total 3 goals: Over -119; Under -104

VALENCIA

Valencia picked up a richly-deserved point in the Champions League on Tuesday after holding Manchester United to a goalless draw at Old Trafford. Marcelino García Toral’s side, who will benefit from an extra day’s rest to prepare for their showdown with Barca, have won just one of their opening seven league matches (D5, L1) and are yet to taste victory on home turf this term.

The Bats are without a victory in the last four games but they didn’t allow a single goal in three of them including the latest duel with the Red Devils at Old Trafford. Valencia faced 19 goal attempts from Manchester United but only four went on target and Neto recorded another clean sheet which is a big boost prior to this tilt with Barcelona.

Betting Trends:

  • Valencia scored five goals in their opening seven league games – an alarming decrease of ten from the corresponding fixtures last term (15)
  • Valencia kept the net intact in three out of the last four matches

BARCELONA

Meanwhile, Barca will be keen to build upon last Wednesday’s 4-2 win over Tottenham at Wembley, where Ernesto Valverde’s men produced arguably their best display of the season so far. Lionel Messi and Jordi Alba put in majestic performances as the Catalan giants outclassed Spurs to maintain their perfect start to the Champions League campaign.

Barca (W4, D2, L1) remain top of LL ahead of this round of fixtures, despite having gone three games without a win for the first time since December 2016. Messi scored a brace in London, while Philippe Coutinho and Ivan Rakitic also scored as Spurs couldn’t avoid a defeat.

Betting Trends:

  • Leo Messi score 24 goals against Valencia in all competitions (0.8 per game)
  • Barcelona is on an 18-game scoring streak in all competitions

It’s more than 11 years to the day that Valencia last recorded a home La Liga win over Barcelona, who have won 11 points from their past five top-flight visits to Mestalla. Barcelona won five out of the previous six H2H encounters but neither side has won by more than one goal in the last ten top-flight encounters between the pair at the Mestalla. That’s why I am backing Valencia not to lose by more than a goal here.

MY PICK: AH +1 Valencia (-141)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Only two out of the last eight H2H duels produced more than three goals including the previous four, while that was the case in seven out of the past nine meetings at the Mestalla, so I don’t expect to see 4+ goals on Sunday.

MY PICK: Under 3 (-104)