La Liga Match of the Day Round 37 – Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla (5/12/19)


Sevilla is three points behind the fourth-placed Getafe and they cannot afford to lose this one while Atletico is looking to end the season as the best home team in LaLiga. The game between Atletico Madrid and Sevilla will take place at Wanda Metropolitano on May 12th, 2019.

Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla 

Three-Way: 1: Atletico +100; X: +260 Draw; 2: Sevilla +260 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Atletico: +106; Sevilla -115

Total 2.5 goals: Over -110; Under -110


Recording a return of W13, L5, since their most recent La Liga stalemate, Atletico Madrid has seen their last three victories coming via a one-goal margin, with the runners up-elect registering the final match goal beyond the hour mark on each occasion.

The hosts need only a point to confirm second place. Their home form suggests a comfortable win, and in a sequence going back to December 2017, all but two of their last 24 LL home wins have been accompanied by a clean sheet.

Diego Simeone will be without suspended Diego Costa while Jose Gimenez (toe), Lucas Hernandez (knee), Nikola Kalinic (illness), and Stefan Savic (muscle) are listed as doubtful to face Sevilla.

Betting Trends:

  • Antoine Griezmann has been the second Atletico goalscorer in two of his last three goalscoring LL appearances at home
  • Atletico scored first in four of their last five matches, winning all of that quartet
  • Of Atletico’s last 22 home league wins to nil, nearly half (nine) have yielded a 1-0 scoreline


Coincidentally, Sevilla is also on a long run in LL without being involved in a draw, though their record is less distinguished: W6, L7. Four of the last five wins in that sequence have seen Sevilla record a clean sheet.

Doubts surrounding Sevilla’s chances are redoubled further, by the fact that six of Sevilla’s last seven LL away defeats have seen them lose to nil. Relevantly, Sevilla squads have also failed to score in the first half in each of their last seven top-flight away matches against Atletico.

Joaquin Caparros cannot count on suspended Ever Banega while Andre Silva (tendon), Daniel Carrico (thigh), and Maximilian Wober (knee) are listed as questionable to feature on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Three of Sevilla’s last four goalscoring LL road trips have seen Wissam Ben Yedder net in the second half
  • Ten of the 12 goals scored by Sevilla across their last four league wins have arrived in the second half
  • Sevilla arrives in the Spanish capital as a clear away-day outsider, and have a record of W1, D1, L3, in previous matches this season as a visiting underdog

Atletico Madrid won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3) and the reverse fixture of this season ended without a winner, 1-1, while Los Colchoneros were victorious in three of the past five meetings at Wanda Metropolitano. Atletico is the best home team in the league and they are on a seven-game winning streak at home while Sevilla is not playing well on the road and despite the fact that they need to win here, I am going with the hosts.

MY PICK: Atletico Madrid (+100)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Atletico conceded just two goals in the previous seven home games while Sevilla failed to score in the last two road games and in three of the past four visits to Wanda Metropolitano in LaLiga. That’s why I am backing under 2.5 goals as I don’t think Atletico will let Sevilla score.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 (-110)