Home College Football College Football Free Picks Kentucky vs. Mississippi State NCAA Football Betting Pick 9/21/19

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State NCAA Football Betting Pick 9/21/19

The Kentucky Wildcats and Mississippi State Bulldogs are ready to go at it on the grass at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. SEC Network has the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Kentucky at Mississippi State Betting Odds 9/21/2019

Mississippi State is favored by 7 points in this SEC game. The Wildcats are currently getting +220 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -300. This SEC tilt should offer some in-game betting opportunities. The over/under has been set at 48.5 points.

With the spread opening at -8 and the total initially placed at 49, betting odds have moved a hair.

The Wildcats are 2-1 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bulldogs are 2-1 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play. The Wildcats have gained 1.0 unit so far in 2019 and are 3-0 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-0.

The Bulldogs have lost 1.3 units this season. They’re 1-2 ATS and also have an O/U record of 3-0.

The Wildcats are trying to get back on track after a 29-21 loss to Florida last week. The passing game the primary culprit Sawyer Smith completed 23-of-35 passes for 267 yards, two scores and three interceptions. Kavosiey Smoke (81 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Asim Rose (46 yards on 14 carries) led the ground attack while Lynn Bowden Jr. (seven receptions, 70 yards) and Justin Rigg (five catches, 50 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

A week ago, Kansas State got the victory against this Mississippi State team by a score of 31-24. As a group, the team collectively completed 11-of-27 passes for 151 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Tommy Stevens went seven-for-15 for 100 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while Garrett Shrader was four-of-12 for 51 yards. Kylin Hill (111 rushing yards on 24 attempts) and Garrett Shrader (82 yards on 10 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Osirus Mitchell (five receptions, 74 yards, one TD) and Hill (two catches, 20 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.

Kentucky has run the ball on 55.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has an overall rush percentage of 61.6 percent. The Wildcats have rushed for 185 yards/game and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are totaling 224 rushing yards per contest and have eight total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Wildcats could own an advantage when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has yielded only 28 sacks while the D-line logged 38 sacks. The Bulldogs offensive line has given up 25 sacks and their defense has recorded only 39 sacks.

The Wildcats have tallied 245 yards per contest in the air overall and have six passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have produced 188 pass yards per outing and have five total pass scores.

Defensively, Kentucky has allowed opponents to run for an average of 123 yards and pass for 268 yards per game. Mississippi State has allowed 139.7 rushing yards per game and 208 to opponents in the air. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.50 to opponents, while the Bulldogs have given up a 6.16 ANY/A.

Smith has put up 267 pass yards on the year. He’s connected on 23-of-35 attempts with two passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Smith’s got a 4.56 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.22 over the last two games.

The Wildcats will probably try to control tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Kavosiey Smoke (159 rush yards, one rush TD) and Asim Rose (110 rush yards, one rush TD, 44 receiving yards) have brought significant production to the Kentucky offense.

Tommy Stevens has recorded 336 yards, three TDs and two INTs for Mississippi State. His ANY/A sits at 5.84 for the year and 5.14 over his last two outings.

The Bulldogs should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Kylin Hill (30 receiving yards), Osirus Mitchell (162 receiving yards and two receiving TDs) and Garrett Shrader (82 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen plenty of touches recently.

When these two teams met a year ago, Kentucky won by three touchdowns 28-7.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Pick

SU Winner – Kentucky, ATS Winner – Kentucky, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The Over/Under for Kentucky’s last game was set at 45.5. The over cashed in the team’s 29-21 loss to Florida.

As a team, Kentucky has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its past two outings.

Mississippi State has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last two.

Mississippi State has lost three fumbles this season while Kentucky has lost four.

Over its last three matches, Kentucky is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Mississippi State’s last game going into it was 51. The over cashed in the team’s 31-24 loss to Kansas State.

Over its last three games, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The Wildcats offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for zero such plays.

The Kentucky defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40 yards or more, while Mississippi State has given up one such play.

The Kentucky offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Mississippi State has created five such runs.

Both defenses have allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Wildcats have given up nine running plays of 10+ yards while the Bulldogs have given up 15 such plays.

The Kentucky defense has seven sacks on the year while Mississippi State has four.

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