Kansas at Baylor
It might be too easy to take the Bears at home, even after they thumped Kansas in Kansas. They held the Jayhawks to only nine assists and had nine steals, so it was more humiliating that the score even indicated.
Fast forward. The Kansas defense ranked first in conference in interior defense,and that’s where Baylor plays most of their offense, under the basket. Typically Kansas is very good at protecting the ball, and before the Bears won in Kansas they hadn’t beaten them in eleven years, and are 6-32 all time against Kansas! So do that win in Kansas give Baylor supreme confidence or irritate the Jayhawks enough to win on the road? The answer is probably a little of both.
These games often come down to a few little things that make a big difference. One little thing is that Baylor gets more shots blocked in D1 than anyone not named Navy or St. Joseph’s. In fact,in Baylor’s only loss, Washington blocked eleven shots. Throw in the fact that Kansas has a huge length advantage as well.
The Jayhawks will have the two best players on the court with Dotson and Azubuike, which when you combine that big thing with some of the little things, adds up. The line is projected to be Baylor -1 which will surely seem like a gift, but honestly I think it could be a Trojan Horse.
Florida at Kentucky
The Wildcats look like they’ve found a groove. They blew out Tennessee on the road and beat LSU in Baton Rouge. They had a rather close game with Mississippi in there but that was three days before the LSU game so not a great situation and they totally turned it on when they had to, winning by five in spite of 2-22 from behind the arc.The sign of a good team is when you don’t bring your “A” game and still get it done.
Florida has been blowing people out, but bad teams and Arkansas without Isiah Joe.The
Gatorsare #1 in 3 point percentage in the SEC and they’re going to have to make all of them if they have any chance. Nobody scores inside on Kentucky.
If Blackshear gets in foul trouble then Florida will be in real trouble. He has fouled out of three games and missed minutes with four fouls six times , so there is a precedent.
Kentucky has a two game lead over Florida in the SEC and can all but clinch the regular season with a win here, and Florida has played the weakest SEC schedule. The Wildcats are the the sixth best free throw shooting team in the nation, which always helps. The line is projected at -4 which seems like the gift that’s not the Trojan Horse and I think Kentucky gets this done rather easily.