Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Week 14 Betting Pick

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The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will go toe-to-toe on the turf of Gillette Stadium. This key late afternoon matchup kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS is in line to have the TV rights.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds 12/8/2019

In what could potentially be an AFC postseason preview, New England is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Chiefs are also receiving +130 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -150. If one squad can get out in front early it will result in a worthwhile live betting scenario. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 49 points.

Early action has swayed in favor of both the Chiefs and the under. The line initially opened at -4 while the game’s O/U was originally 50.5.

The Chiefs are 7-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.8 units so far in 2019. The team has posted an O/U record of 7-5.

The Patriots have gained 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 7-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-8.

The Chiefs are 8-4 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Patriots are 10-2 SU.

The Chiefs are coming off a resounding 40-9 win over Oakland last week. The passing attack wasn’t great as Patrick Mahomes completed just 15-of-29 passes for 175 yards and one touchdown. Darwin Thompson (44 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Travis Kelce (five receptions, 90 yards) and Tyreek Hill (five catches, 55 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Back in Week 13, Houston knocked off this New England crew by a score of 28-22. The Pats defense did its duty in the loss, restricting the Texans to just 240 passing yards and 52 yards on the ground. Duke Johnson had a solid outing, posting 54 yards on five catches for Houston. For New England, Tom Brady completed 24-of-47 passes for 326 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. James White did it all in the loss. Along with 79 rushing yards on 14 attempts, White also reeled in eight receptions for 98 yards and two scores.

Kansas City has run the ball on 37.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 40.2 percent. The Chiefs have produced 95 rush yards per game and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Pats are logging 96 rush yards per game and have 13 total rushing TDs.

The Chiefs offensive scheme has tallied 304 yards per game in the air overall and has 24 passing TDs so far. The Pats have recorded 277 pass yards per outing and have 19 total pass scores.

Kansas City has allowed opponents to run for an average of 141 yards and throw for 253 yards per game. The New England D has allowed 186 yards per game to opposing passers and 94.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Pats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 2.81 to opponents, while the Chiefs have allowed a 5.64 ANY/A.

Mahomes has amassed 2,801 pass yards this year. He’s completed 208-of-320 attempts with 19 passing touchdowns and only one interception. Mahomes has a 9.19 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.37 over the past two games.

Look for a balanced approach offensively from Kansas City in this one. As a group, Travis Kelce, LeSean McCoy and Patrick Mahomes have combined to account for 353 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.

Tom Brady has completed 280-of-449 passes for 3,078 yards, 17 TDs and six INTs for New England. His ANY/A sits at 6.43 for the season and 5.83 over his past two games.

We’re looking for the Pats to control tempo by feeding their ball-carriers early and often. In addition to Julian Edelman (822 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), James White (203 rush yards, one rush TD, 518 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Sony Michel (560 rush yards, six rush TDs) have been significant factors in the Patriots’ recent offensive gameplans.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Free Betting Pick

SU Winner – Patriots, ATS Winner – Chiefs, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Trends

New England has lost four fumbles this season while Kansas City has lost nine.

The New England defense has registered 40 sacks on the year while Kansas City has just 34.

Kansas City has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.0 over its last two.

New England has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.

Over its last three games, New England is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Kansas City’s last game going into it was 50.5. The under cashed in the team’s 40-9 triumph over Oakland.

In its last three matches, Kansas City is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for New England’s last game was set at 47. The over cashed in the 28-22 loss to Houston.