Joe Burrow will go first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. What happens after that is anybody’s guess.
It would appear that the start of the first round hinges primarily on the third overall pick. It would seem that Chase Young is going second overall behind Burrow. Is that the way that things are going to play out on April 23?
With most sports, including all of the professional North American leagues, on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, oddsmakers have had the chance to put their social distancing to good use with a bevy of NFL Draft props. Similarly, bettors have been able to put a lot more effort, energy, and focus into the draft props as well.
Most of the NFL Draft props are over/under draft position, which we will also take a look at in another article. This one, however, will focus on Exact Draft Position for the draftees that are listed in the betting markets.
Over at 5Dimes, Joe Burrow is listed at -4500 to go first overall to the Cincinnati Bengals. I guess we can safely put that one to bed.
We actually don’t have any sportsbooks offering Chase Young goes exactly second overall, but there are odds for Young to go third overall. 5Dimes lists Young at +475 to go third overall and -735 to not go third overall.
Realistically speaking, Young is very, very, very unlikely to drop to fourth or lower. In a way, we can say that Young to go second overall is -735. That pick belongs to the Washington Redskins, who need help at a lot of positions. It is also entirely possible that they don’t think that Dwayne Haskins is the guy after spending the 15th pick on him last season.
Of course, they also traded for Kyle Allen. In other words, the only option here would appear to be Young, unless a different defensive player or an attractive trade sneaks up the board.
Third Overall Pick
This is where the NFL Draft gets really interesting. There are a lot of ways that the Detroit Lions could go. They have decimated their secondary over the last six months with trades of Quandre Diggs and Darius Slay. They could opt to draft a QB-in-waiting that can learn behind Matthew Stafford, but Stafford is still under a full cap hit for three more seasons and it would pretty much take retirement for the lions to get relief from that.
The likelihood would be that the Lions would trade the pick before they would take a quarterback. They’ll just hope that Stafford is back and healthy for 2020 and beyond.
So, which direction do they go?
Jeffrey Okudah (DB – Ohio State) – Jeffrey Okudah could very well be the pick here. Given what the Lions have done to their secondary, Okudah is listed at +140 at BetOnline to go third overall. He is listed at +170 on 5Dimes. Okudah really does fill a huge need for the Lions and looks like a game-changing type of player.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama) – This would require a trade from the Lions in all likelihood, but Tua’s filmed workouts have looked really good in his quest to come back from major hip surgery. The Lions have a boatload of needs and could attempt to stockpile some picks. Tua is +175 from BetOnline and +160 from 5Dimes. MyBookie lists Tua at +425 to go second overall and +160 to go third overall.
Your eyes are not deceiving you. Tua’s price to be the third pick are lower at 5Dimes than those of Okudah. Trading up for a QB is a tradition as old as time in the first round of the NFL and some team may be willing to do it.
If the Lions keep the pick, it is Okudah. If they don’t, it would appear to be Tua.
Chase Young (DE – Ohio State) – Remember that 5Dimes had Chase Young going third overall at +475. BetOnline has +500. If the Redskins did bypass Young or trade down to allow another team to take a quarterback, it seems highly unlikely that Young would get past this spot. The Lions would be crazy not to take him and help out the porous secondary with a pass rusher.
If you firmly believe that Washington will trade the pick, you can take Young here at +500. I wouldn’t bet on that, though.
Isaiah Simmons (S – Clemson) – This is the player that intrigues me the most in the first round. Isaiah Simmons covers a ton of ground. At Clemson, Simmons played a lot of different roles and excelled as a blitzer and in coverage. He might be the most versatile player in the first round and we’ve seen how safeties can completely change the game. It wouldn’t be a shocker if he is the best player to come out of this draft.
Simmons is +700 to go third overall. That seems a little high, given that his over/under draft position is lined at 6.5, but the juice is heavy on the under. Third overall is probably a stretch, but he should be a top-five pick.
This is definitely a swing spot with regards to the NFL Draft, so we’ll have to watch the third pick closely.