Jimmy Garoppolo Super Bowl Prop Bets: How Far Can Jimmy G Take It?


Fun fact — San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo comes out of Eastern Illinois University, which happens to be the same alma mater of Mike Shanahan, father of his head coach, Kyle Shanahan. EIU has also spawned other famous NFL folk like Sean Payton, Tony Romo and Brad Childress, as well as former world boxing and kick-boxing champ James Warring, who was an All-American receiver there in 1978.

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Not-so-fun fact — When Garoppolo tore his ACL, which took him out of most of the 2018 season, it happened against the same Kansas City Chiefs he’ll be facing on Sunday in Super Bowl 54, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.

Most of us think we know what both teams are trying to accomplish in Sunday’s game, but things can change. One question among NFL bettors is whether Garoppolo can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in terms of air efficiency.

At BetAnySports, where customers can watch the game on FOX and place wagers while the action is in progress with Sports Betting Ultra, there are also a ton of props. One of them pits Garoppolo against Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes in the category of passing yards.


Mahomes passing yards -64.5 (-115)

Garoppolo passing yards +64.5 (-115)

Everybody seems to know what Mahomes is capable of. But in light of the fact that Garoppolo threw only 27 passes in the two playoff games that brought the Niners to this point, we wonder how much people actually realize about HIM.

So let’s explore some more fun facts (and certainly more useful) that maybe you weren’t aware of:

* Garoppolo actually averaged more yards per attempt than Mahomes this season (8.36 to 8.33).

* Garoppolo was arguably more productive than Mahomes in the red zone. He was 63% accurate, compared to just 51.8% for Mahomes, and he also had more TD passes in the red zone (16-11).

* Garoppolo will face blitzes, for sure, but if his running game is good enough to keep the KC defense honest, he may be able to exploit his own ability when NOT being blitzed, as he has a higher completion percentage, higher passer rating and more yards per attempt than Mahomes.

* Garoppolo has a 23-5 record as an NFL starter. And it should be noted that five of those wins came after he took the reins of a 1-10 team (in 2017).

* Garoppolo has completed 70% of his passes in the fourth quarter, with only one interception.

* Garoppolo’s “bad throw percentage” is just 13.7%, compared to 18.3% for Mahomes.

* In the playoffs, Garoppolo led an offense that produced first downs on 43% of his dropbacks against Minnesota and 50% of dropbacks against Green Bay. So he is making his opportunities count.

* Garoppolo has thrown the ball an average of 6.5 yards past the line of scrimmage on a per-attempt basis, compared to 8.8 for Mahomes. That doesn’t speak in his favor. BUT when it comes to passes that travel 15 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, Jimmy G’s completion rate is the highest in the NFL, at 58.5%. So no one should have any qualms about his ability to get the ball down the field when he has to.

* Garoppolo has had more success working play-action, which is understandable, since the San Francisco running game is generally a lot better than the Kansas City running game. While Mahomes averages 7.9 yards per attempt in those situations, Jimmy G throws for more than three yards higher on average (11.5). If the Niners’ offensive strategy works, this guy is dangerous.

* San Francisco has surrendered fewer “explosive” pass plays (20 yards or more) than any other NFL team. At the same time, they have produced an explosive passing play on offense 12% of the time, which is best in the NFL.

What I’m trying to tell you is – don’t sell Garoppolo short here. Between the ability of his own defensive teammates as well as what he does that is largely underrated, I feel compelled to take the 65.5 yards in this prop.

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