Italian Serie A Pick of the Day Round 2 – Juventus vs. Napoli (8/31/19)


The Old Lady started the defense of the title with a tight victory over Parma on the road but now will have a much harder job against Napoli who scored even four goals in the opener against Fiorentina. The match between Juventus and Napoli will take place at Allianz Stadium on August 31st, 2019.

Juventus vs. Napoli

Three-Way: 1: Juventus -105; X: +240 Draw; 2: Napoli +320 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Juventus -102; Napoli -105

Total 2.5 goals: Over +100; Under -125


With an average of just 7.25 points separating the two sides over the previous four Serie A seasons, both clubs know how important this fixture could be. Given the tense feel ahead of kick-off, the fact that seven of Juventus’ last nine SA matches have yielded a final margin of under 1.5 goals becomes all the more relevant.

Of those seven matches, a majority (four) have seen the visitors on the day lead at half-time, only to concede the next goal in the second half. In turn, none of Juventus’ last three Serie A home wins have been attained after a won first half.

Maurizio Sarri doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns as almost all of the players are healthy and at his disposal. Midfielder Marko Pjaca is the only questionable player to face Napoli as he is dealing with a knee injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Mario Mandžukić scored a brace for Juventus in the previous season’s SA H2H here; three of his last four competitive home goals have put his side 1-0 up, with the scoreline going unchanged after that each time
  • Of Juventus’ last eight Serie A matches to produce over 1.5 total goals either way; six have seen the first two match goals equally shared


Napoli’s last three Serie A games have each produced over 4.5 goals, partly contributing to the fact that four of their previous five halves of away play have seen them score precisely twice.

The general expectation of a fraught start is backed further still by the fact that three of Napoli’s last four SA trips to Bianconeri turf have yielded a goalless first half, before a result separating the teams by just one goal.

Carlo Ancelotti could be without the newest signing Hirving Lozano who is suffering from a foot injury while top-scorer Arkadiusz Milik is dealing with a muscle injury and could also miss this tilt.

Betting Trends:

  • Scorer of the first equalizer in Napoli’s season-opening win, Dries Mertens has seen two of his three previous goals against Juventus arrive beyond the hour mark
  • Seventeen of Napoli’s last 18 Serie A trips to Juventus have produced under 1.5 goals in the first half

Juventus won six of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1, L3), including three of the last four while the Old Lady was victorious in five of the past six meetings at Allianz Stadium. Across all venues, the host on the day has led at half-time in none of the last seven Serie A H2H duels. It’s going to be a close match, and that’s why I am going with anytime draw, especially considering the previous statement.

MY PICK: Anytime Draw (-130)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Only three of the last 13 H2H clashes failed to produce goals on both ends while three of the previous four meetings at Allianz Stadium provided goals on both sides. Napoli scored four in the opening round, and even though they will probably not score four here, I am backing BTTS.