Italian Serie A Pick of the Day Round 19 – AS Roma vs. Juventus (1/12/20)

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The gap between Juventus and Roma is ten points, so this game will give us an answer whether Roma has a quality to fight for the title in Serie A. Only a win is an option for the hosts if they want to stay alive in the title race, while Juventus has an opportunity to knock Roma out of contention. The match between Roma and Juventus will take place at Stadio Olimpico on January 12th, 2020.

AS Roma vs. Juventus

Three-Way: 1: Roma +225; X: +268 Draw; 2: Juventus +127 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Roma +136; Juventus -133

Total 2.5 goals: Over -130; Under +117

AS ROMA

Notably, the two victories within Roma’s recent chain at home that produced a single-goal margin saw Roma win the first half specifically by a 1-0 scoreline. Across all competitions, though, just one of Roma’s last six open-play home goals has come before the break.

Roma is unbeaten in their last five home league encounters vs. Juventus (W3, D2), with each of the wins seeing them score exactly twice in the second half. On the other hand, a glut of at least two goals for Juventus would see them hit a century of historic Serie A away goals vs. Roma.

Paulo Fonseca will be without Davide Zappacosta (knee), while Justin Kluivert (thigh), Javier Pastore (hip), Bryan Cristante (groin), and Devid Bouah (knee) are questionable to face Juventus.

Betting Trends:

  • Edin Džeko scored the final goal in last season’s corresponding SA fixture (W 2-0) – his five most recent Serie A goals have been the first or last of their respective matches
  • None of Roma’s last seven home league victories have seen them win both halves
  • Roma scored a penalty goal in three of their last four home games won/drawn

JUVENTUS

Juventus’ milestone may be delayed though, with six of the last seven league H2Hs played out in the capital city yielding a goalless first half. Relevantly, just one of the last nine SA H2Hs played anywhere has seen both teams score before half-time.

The Bianconeri enjoy a strong record as an away favorite in league games this term (W5, D2, L1) for a win-rate of 62.5%. However, it is worth noting that a significant 60% of Juventus’ last five Serie A away games have seen the first scorer fail to win (First Scorer: D1, L2).

Maurizio Sarri cannot count on suspended Rodrigo Bentancur and injured Giorgio Chiellini (knee) and Sami Khedira (knee). Gonzalo Higuain is doubtful to take on Roma as he is struggling with a thigh injury.

Betting Trends:

  • The immortal Cristiano Ronaldo netted a second-half hat-trick in Juventus’ last outing after a goalless first half
  • CR7 has averaged 2.0 goals-per-game across the Bianconeri’s last three wins
  • If excluding own-goals, just one of Juventus’ last six Serie A away wins have seen them score in both halves

Juventus won five of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L3), including two of the last four (D1, L1), while I Giallorossi were victorious in three of the past four meetings at Stadio Olimpico (D1). After going seven games without a loss, Roma suffered a surprising home defeat to Torino in the previous round and is eager to bounce back against the reigning champions. However, Juventus has only one loss this season, and although it occurred at this same venue (vs. Lazio), I don’t think they will suffer another one here. I am not backing the Old Lady, but I also don’t believe the visitors will get three points. I am going with a draw.

MY PICK: Draw (+268)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Perhaps surprisingly, none of the last four H2H duels produced goals on both ends, while the rivals failed to score on both ends in six of the previous seven H2H meetings. I usually don’t bet against tradition and trends, but on this occasion, I am going with BTTS. Three of Roma’s last four games overall produced goals on both sides, while that also occurred in three of Juventus’ previous four.

MY PICK: BTTS YES (-153)

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