Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets Betting Pick 01/19/20


The Denver Nuggets (29-12) will be at home in the Pepsi Center when they take on the Indiana Pacers (27-15). Denver opened as a 1.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 211.5 points. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 19, 2020, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.

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Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets Odds Preview

The last time the Pacers played, they edged the Minnesota Timberwolves, 116-114, but failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites. T.J. Warren was the game’s high scorer with 28 points on 11-for-18 shooting. The Pacers, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.527, had an extraordinary mark of 0.610 and had a free throw rate of 0.195 (above their season average of 0.172). The two teams combined to put up 230 points, which was over the O/U total of 218.

The Nuggets enter this matchup after barely hanging on to beat the Golden State Warriors, 134-131, resulting in a push. With 31 points on 11-for-20 shooting, Will Barton was the top scorer from either team. The Nuggets had a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 31.9 (above their season average of 24.3) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.555 (above their season average of 0.520). The two teams collectively scored 265 points, which was well over the projected point total of 213.5.

Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Denver currently ranks 27th in possessions per game (100.5) and Indiana is 24th (100.6).

Of Indiana’s 42 games, 21 have finished over the projected point total, while 24 of Denver’s 41 games have finished under the O/U total. Both teams have solid straight up (SU) records (27-15 for Indiana; 29-12 for Denver), but the Pacers have the advantage against the spread (ATS). Indiana is 22-18-2 ATS, while the Nuggets are 16-19-6.

These two teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 240 points, well over the projected point total of 208. The Nuggets won 124-116, covering as 1-point favorites. Denver out-rebounded Indiana. The Nuggets had 15 offensive rebounds and 47 total rebounds, while the Pacers had nine and 34, respectively. Despite the loss, Jeremy Lamb was the game’s leading scorer with 30 points.

Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction

NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Under


Betting Notes:

The Pacers rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Nuggets rank eighth (7.1).

Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while Indiana ranks seventh (15.1).

On the road, Indiana is 11-9 ATS with 10 overs and 10 unders.

At home, Denver is 8-11-3 ATS with 15 unders and 7 overs.

When allowing below 100 points, Denver is 11-1 and Indiana is 8-1.

When reaching 100 points, the Pacers are 27-9 and the Nuggets are 27-8.

Neither of these teams shoot many threes. The Nuggets are 27th in the NBA with 30.0 three pointers per game while the Pacers are last with 27.5 threes per game.

Denver ranks seventh in second chance points per game (13.6) while Indiana ranks 25th (12.1).

The Pacers average 25.9 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 17th in assists allowed per game (24.3).

Denver ranks seventh in points in the paint per game (49.9) while Indiana ranks 17th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.1).

Bettings Trends:

Denver is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in its last five games.

Over its past five outings, Indiana is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.

The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 4.0 for the season.

During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 109.0 points per game (0.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.0 points per game (0.7 above their season average).

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