Illinois at Purdue College Football Betting Pick 10/26/19

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A couple of schools possessing quite different run-pass ratios, the Illinois Fighting Illini (+8) will meet their conference nemesis Purdue Boilermakers (-8) at Ross-Ade Stadium. BTN will broadcast the action and kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.

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Illinois vs. Purdue Betting Odds 10/26/2019

Purdue is favored by 8 points in this Big 10 game. The Fighting Illini are currently being given +250 moneyline odds while the Boilermakers are -330. The over/under has been set at 58.5 points, and it appears that there should be some good live betting possibilities during this game.

The Fighting Illini are 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Boilermakers are 2-5 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play. The Fighting Illini are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.0 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 3-4.

The Boilermakers are down 5.0 units this season. The team is 4-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-3.

The Fighting Illini enter after a 24-23 victory over Wisconsin last week in which Brandon Peters completed only nine-of-21 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns. Reggie Corbin (83 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) and Dre Brown (70 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack while Daniel Barker (three receptions, 37 yards) and Josh Imatorbhebhe (two catches, 42 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Purdue just fell 26-20 to Iowa. Jack Plummer completed 30-of-50 passes for 327 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. King Doerue (26 rushing yards on 10 attempts) spearheaded the running attack while David Bell (13 receptions, 197 yards, one TD) and Brycen Hopkins (five catches, 51 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Illinois has run the ball on 55.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Purdue has an overall rush percentage of 38.4 percent. The Fighting Illini have produced 146 rush yards per game (including 129 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Boilermakers are putting up 59 rush yards per contest (66 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.

The Fighting Illini have averaged 188 yards in the air overall (150 per game against conference opposition) and have 13 passing scores so far. The Boilermakers have recorded 325 pass yards per outing (290.3 in the Big 10) and have 18 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Illinois should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 195 yards and pass for 237 yards per game. Purdue has allowed 157.3 yards per game on the ground and 275.4 to opposing teams in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Fighting Illini have given up an ANY/A of 7.35 to opposing QBs, while the Boilermakers are yielding an ANY/A of 6.97.

Plummer has put up 872 yards, six TDs and five INTs. Plummer’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at a terrible 3.98 for the year and 8.43 across his past two outings. In the other locker room, Matt Robinson has amassed 348 passing yards on the year, and has completed 32-of-57 attempts with one passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Robinson’s got a 4.61 ANY/A, including 5.70 over the last two outings.

These two squads met last year with the final result being a 46-7 victory for Purdue.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Pick

SU Winner – Illinois, ATS Winner – Illinois, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The O/U for Illinois’ previous game was 52. The under cashed in the team’s 24-23 victory over Wisconsin.

Illinois has produced 2.8 yards per carry over its past three contests and 2.6 over its last two.

Purdue has averaged 1.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.9 over its past two.

Both teams have lost six fumbles this season.

Over its last three contests, Illinois is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Purdue’s previous outing going into it was 47.5. The under cashed in that 26-20 loss to Iowa.

In its last three matchups, Purdue is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Fighting Illini offense has recorded two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Boilermakers have put up eight such plays.

The Illinois defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Purdue has given up nine such plays.

The Illinois offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Purdue has created one such runs.

The Fighting Illini defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Boilermakers have given up 12 such runs.

The Illinois D has 17 sacks on the year while Purdue has 15.

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