Hoffenheim holds the key of the future in their hands and three points here would secure them the Champions League spot for the next season, but the situation in the Bundesliga table is quite complicated and anything but a win could eliminate them from the top four race. On the other hand, Dortmund could finish among the top four even with a loss, but a point would definitely guarantee them Europe’s elite football next term. The game between Hoffenheim and Dortmund will take place at Wirsol Rhein-Neckar-Arena on Saturday, May 12th.
Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund
Three-Way: 1: Hoffenheim +120; X: +279 Draw; 2: Dortmund +200 at BetOnline Sportsbook
Spread -0.5: Hoffenheim +110; Dortmund -143
Total 3.5 goals: Over -110; Under -111
Hoffenheim was in an excellent run of nine games without a defeat but they fell short at Stuttgart, losing 2-0, and now they must earn the Champions League qualification with a victory over Dortmund at home. Hoffenheim dominated the entire tilt with Stuttgart and had 65% of the ball possession and 21 attempts on goal including seven on target, but the hosts managed to score from just a couple of shots by Mario Gomez and undeservedly stole a win. Julian Nagelsmann’s side is currently in the 4th position with 52 points, three behind Dortmund and the same amount as Leverkusen who has a bit worse goal difference.
Hoffenheim played 43 games so far in the 2017/18, recording 16 victories, 12 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal difference of 75:64, which is 3.23 goals per contest on average. Hoffenheim is unbeaten in the previous six matches at home and has four consecutive wins, scoring 14 goals in the process and allowing just one in return.
Mark Uth is the team’s top scorer with 17 goals in 37 appearances; Andrej Kramaric is following him on a goal-scoring chart with 12 goals, while Serge Gnabry added ten goals to his name. Uth is the best assist-maker with nine dishes; Kramaric has eight, Gnabry contributed with seven, while Kerem Demirbay chipped in with six assists at the moment. Julian Nagelsmann cannot count on Gnabry (muscle), Demirbay (ankle), Lukas Rupp (cruciate ligament rupture), Benjamin Hubner (thigh), Stefan Posch (groin), and Dennis Geiger (hamstring).
The Black and Yellows have been fairly inconsistent this season and they complicated their own situation with the latest home defeat to Mainz, and now they cannot afford to lose this tilt if they want to play the Champions League next year. Dortmund was 2-0 down after the opening 13 minutes as Baku and Muto put the visitors up, and although the hosts clawed one back through Maximilian Philipp only a couple of minutes later, they couldn’t avoid a defeat. Peter Stöger’s side is in the 3rd place with 55 points, and while one point will be enough to qualify for the UCL, Hoffenheim is playing much better right now and Dortmund must be extremely cautious on Saturday.
Borussia Dortmund played 47 games in this campaign, recording 18 victories, 14 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal difference of 85:64, which is 3.17 goals per contest on average. The Black and Yellows are without an away win in the previous six matches and they scored miserable three goals in the process, conceding 11 in return.
Maximilian Philipp and Michy Bathsuayi are the team’s leading scorers with nine goals apiece, while Shinji Kagawa, Marco Reus, and Andriy Yarmolenko contributed with six goals each. Christian Pulisic, Mario Gotze, and Kagawa have seven assists apiece, while Mahmoud Dahoud, Andre Schurrle, and Yarmolenko are right behind the trio with six dishes each. Peter Stöger will be without Batshuayi (ankle), Sebastian Rode (groin), and Erik Durm (ankle), while Sokratis is suspended.
Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund – Betting Trends and Match Prediction
- Hoffenheim scored two or more goals in each of the previous four matches at home
- Hoffenheim kept the clean sheet in three out of the last four home games
- Dortmund failed to score in three out of the previous four away matches
- Dortmund allowed nine goals in the last three road games
Dortmund won three out of the previous six H2H encounters and didn’t suffer a defeat to Hoffenheim since May 2015 when Hoffenheim beat them at Westfalen. Borussia beat them with an identical 2-1 result in the past two meetings including the first of the season in Dortmund, while the last four duels at the Wirsol Rhein-Neckar-Arena ended without a winner. The hosts are very attacking-minded in front of their own fans and considering Dortmund’s problems at the back, I think Hoffenheim will score at least two here, but the visitors should also find the back of the net minimum once, so I am backing a bunch of goals on this one.
MY PICK: Over 3.5 goals (-110)