German Bundesliga Pick of the Day Round 3 – Bayer Leverkusen vs. Hoffenheim (8/31/19)

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Bayer is one of five teams with maximum six points after the opening two rounds, and now they will try to beat the team who scored eight goals against them last season. Hoffenheim, on the other hand, bounced back from an opening loss to Frankfurt and came from behind to defeat Hertha at home. The match between Bayer Leverkusen and Hoffenheim will take place at BayArena on August 31st, 2019.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Hoffenheim

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Three-Way: 1: Leverkusen -189; X: +375 Draw; 2: Hoffenheim +425 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1: Leverkusen -111; Hoffenheim +102

Total 3.5 goals: Over -111; Under -111

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Goals seem a given here as each of the last three H2Hs have ended 4-1 either way, while the 11 historical meetings in Leverkusen have seen 3.64 goals per game on average. In addition, the 23 all-time meetings have never seen a 0-0 – a scoreline also not seen in Bayer Leverkusen’s last 21 Bundesliga home games and Hoffenheim’s last 45 away league trips!

Leverkusen’s two straight wins to start 2018/19 now make it eight unbeaten in the league (W7, D1) and form part of a run of 20 competitive domestic games where they’ve scored, with the last seven seeing both sides net. All but one of those seven saw over 1.5 goals by half-time.

Eighteen of Leverkusen’s last 22 league losses have been despite a +1 handicap headstart, with no less than 12 of 18 those featuring over 3.5 goals, including two losses last season versus Hoffenheim.

Betting Trends:

  • Kevin Volland has either scored (four) or assisted (five) in eight of Leverkusen’s last nine competitive games
  • No Bundesliga side drew fewer games (four) than Leverkusen in 2018/19

HOFFENHEIM

Conversely, 11 of Hoffenheim’s previous 14 league victories came via at least a two-goal margin, while both teams scored in 30 of ‎Die Kraichgauer’s last 37 Bundesliga games.

Hoffenheim’s victory the last match snapped a five-game winless league run (D1, L4), with three of the previous four in that sequence seeing them down 1-0 at the break. Indeed, a 1-0 half-time scoreline, either way, has been the outcome in 18 of their last 36 league games!

Alfred Schreuder has almost all of the players healthy and at his disposal as only a few of them are questionable to face Leverkusen on Saturday. Benjamini Hubner (neck), Andrej Kramaric (knee), Philipp Ochs (thigh), and Steven Zuber (foot) are listed as doubtful to play.

Betting Trends:

  • Midfielder Ihlas Bebou has impressively scored in six of his last ten competitive games – all came in the second half
  • Hoffenheim away matches saw a league-high 21 total goals in the final 15 minutes the last term

Leverkusen won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L4), but only once in the last seven duels while Hoffenheim was better in two of the past three meetings at BayArena. Bayer opened this season with three consecutive wins and are firm favorites to get the fourth in a row, but I reckon these odds on them to win to are low. Hoffenheim has a good record against Leverkusen lately, and that’s why I am backing the visitors to cover the +1 spread in this one.

MY PICK: AH +1 Hoffenheim (+102)

ADDITIONAL PICK: We saw even 19 goals in the last four H2H duels and also goals on both sides in the process. The scoreline in the previous three encounters was identical, 4-1, and although I don’t expect to see it again here, I am going with over 3.5 goals.

MY PICK: Over 3.5 (-111)

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