German Bundesliga Pick of the Day Round 19 – Bayern Munich vs. Schalke 04 (1/25/20)


Bayern Munich is an absolute favorite to get three points against Schalke 04, but although the bookies are giving the Bavarians low odds, we cannot ignore the fact that the gap between two teams is just three points. The game between Bayern Munich and Schalke 04 will take place at Allianz Arena on January 25th, 2020.

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Bayern Munich vs. Schalke 04

Three-Way: 1: Bayern -500; X: +750 Draw; 2: Schalke 1500 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -2: Bayern -125; Schalke +116

Total 3.5 goals: Over -130; Under +117


Bayern Munich takes to the field after four consecutive league wins (GF 15, GA 2). Every one of the Bavarian giants’ last eight goals within that sequence came no earlier than the 60th minute. Additionally, all of those wins yielded a multi-goal margin, thanks to Bayern scoring exactly twice between 75’-FT each time.

Though Bayern has a win-rate of just 66.67% at home in the league this term, two-thirds of their home league wins have yielded a winning margin of 4+ goals. Each of that emphatic quartet saw Bayern score 3+ uninterrupted match goals in the second half of play.

Hans-Dieter Flick will be without Kingsley Coman (knee), Javi Martinez (thigh), and Niklas Sule (knee), while Lucas Hernandez (ankle) is questionable to face Schalke 04.

Betting Trends:

  • In order, Joshua Zirkzee and Serge Gnabry have netted a goal apiece beyond the 80th minute in two of Bayern’s last three league wins
  • Bayern has gone seven competitive home matches without conceding a second-half goal from open play
  • In H2H terms, Bayern led by a one-goal margin at half-time in each of their last four league wins


With five-game away league form that makes for even reading (W2, D1, L2), Schalke goes into this clash on the back of a 2-0 win, which came after a goalless first half. In turn, their last three goals scored in the course of league victories have arrived in the 15 minutes following half-time.

Schalke’s last four away league games have ended separating the sides by under 1.5 goals (W2, D1, L1). The winner in said games (if any) consistently arrived in the second half of play, with two of the trio won/lost seeing the winner arrive no earlier than the 80th minute.

David Wagner cannot count on Weston McKennie (shoulder), Salif Sane (knee), and Benjamin Stambouli (foot), while Amine Harit (thigh) is questionable to feature on Saturday.

Betting Trends:

  • Ahmed Kutucu equalized for an eventual consolation (inside the opening 30 minutes) in last season’s corresponding fixture
  • Schalke scored first in each of their last four league outings (W2, D2)

Bayern won nine of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1), including the last six, while the Bavarians were victorious in the past three meetings at Allianz Arena. Schalke is without a win over Bayern since 2011, and even though I don’t think the visitors have a chance here, I don’t expect the Reds to destroy the Miners. Bayern already suffered four losses this season, one more than Schalke, which has to be a warning sign for the bettors who are backing the hosts to cover the -2 spread. Schalke has the quality to cause problems to the reigning champions, and I am backing them to cover the spread.

MY PICK: Schalke 04 AH +2 (+116)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Schalke managed to score in five of the previous seven H2H duels at Allianz Arena, and although Bayern kept the clean sheet in the last two Bundesliga matches, I am backing the visitors to find the back of the net here. Bayern will likely outscore Schalke, but I am not sure whether they can keep the net intact.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

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