German Bundesliga Match of the Day Round 8 – Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich (10/20/18)

0

Niko Kovač is under immense pressure at Bayern Munich after a run of four games (in all competitions) without a win (D2, L2) – a feat last seen in the first half of the season in 2009, so he could lose his job in case of losing this clash. The game between Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich will take place at the Volkswagen Arena on October 20th, 2018.

WOLFSBURG vs. BAYERN MUNICH

Three-Way: 1: Wolfsburg +750; X: +400 Draw; 2: Bayern -278 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +1.5: Wolfsburg -112; Bayern +104

Total 3 goals: Over -118; Under -105

WOLFSBURG

After starting the season well with two-straight Bundesliga wins, Wolfsburg (W2, D3, L2) have since then failed to win in their last five (D3, L2) with their ‘old problem’ of too many draws seemingly back again. Taking into account last season’s 15 stalemates, ‘The Wolves’ have now drawn 18 of their last 39 regular season Bundesliga games (46.15%).

Wolfsburg drew three out of the last five Bundesliga games but they lost the latest clash with Werder Bremen on the road. Davy Klaassen opened the scoring, while Johannes Eggestein scored his first senior goal for Werder in the 90th minute to set the final score, 2-0.

The Wolves cannot count on injured Joshua Guilavogui (knee) and Felix Klaus (abdominal strain), while even six players are questionable to feature including Jeffrey Bruma (ankle), Ignacio Camacho (groin), Robin Noche (groin), and Admir Mehmedi (calf).

Betting Trends:

  • Wolfsburg’s overall four home games saw both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals
  • 23 of Wolfsburg’s last 25 home Bundesliga games have seen either both teams score or over 2.5 goals
  • Wolfsburg has been ahead at half-time just once this season

BAYERN MUNICH

Chasing a record seventh-successive title, Bayern lost two-straight games in the league. May 2015 was the last time the club lost three on the bounce while their 222 minutes without a Bundesliga goal is their longest dry spell since 2014.

Luckily for Bayern, they are facing the fellow strugglers who are without a win in the last five Bundesliga games, so this might be Kovac’s final chance to save his career at the Allianz Arena. After losing 2-0 to Hertha in Berlin, The Bavarians disappointed against Borussia Monchengladbach at home in one of the worst performances in this decade, losing 3-0. Manuel Neuer continued with poor form as he conceded three goals from three shots on target as Alassane Plea, Lars Stindl, and Patrick Herrmann all scored for the visitors.

The Bavarians will be without French internationals Kingsley Coman and Corentin Tolisso, who are struggling with ankle and knee injuries, respectively, while David Alaba (muscle), Jerome Boateng (calf), Leon Goretzka (thigh), and Rafinha (ankle) are all listed as questionable.

Betting Trends:

  • Bayern’s last six away Bundesliga games have seen one side win with a handicap of -1
  • Bayern scored only one goal in the previous three Bundesliga games

Luckily for Bayern, they are facing a Wolfsburg side that they ‘own’. Across 42 Bundesliga meetings, Bayern lost just four times to Wolfsburg (W32, D6), scoring 100 goals to 36 against. All four defeats came at Wolfsburg however, but Bayern has won seven of the last nine H2H tilts here. Even though I believe they should win on Saturday, I don’t think the Bavarians will do it by more than one goal difference, so I am backing Wolfsburg to cover the +1.5 spread.

MY PICK: AH +1.5 Wolfsburg (-112)

ADDITIONAL PICK: This matchup usually offers plenty of excitement and goals as ten out of the previous 12 H2H encounters produced three or more goals. I am backing Bayern to end the scoring drought but their defense is far from being convincing, so I am also backing the hosts to find the way behind Neuer’s back.

MY PICK: Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals (+110)