I suspect most people already know whether they’re taking Kansas City or San Francisco. And since there is so much more money bet on this one game, the market is what we call liquid. This game even more so because the line is essentially pick the winner. A liquid market is simply a market where there’s such a large volume that there are buyers and sellers on both sides, so bets can be made without much (if any) market distortion.
With that in mind, there’s likely to be no discernible edge on either side. But what there is an edge on and always is, are prop bets. Books are for the most part throwing darts in an effort to get their lines available first. Granted, these bets have much lower limits, but you have to ask yourself if want the edge over the book, or not. Of course they also make the game more interesting to watch.
I’ve looked a ton of props and will continue to do so. Those lines DO move with regularity because the market is NOT liquid. Anyhow, I tried not to take what appears to be obvious, but the work says this has a solid chance to cash.
George Kittle over 71 yards receiving: Over -112 – Under -112 @ BetOnline
First off San Francisco IS going to have to throw more than eight times. During the regular season, Kittle was targeted an average of 7.6 times per game, which was 10th in the NFL. His catch rate of 79% was fourth in the league not factoring in running backs, and here’s a big one. He had 602 yards after the catch, which was third in the entire league.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas City’s defense was targeted by TE’s the second most in the league, and there were only three teams that allowed more yards TO tight ends.
So, well Fuller and Breeland will need help covering Samuel and Sanders, that leaves Tyrann Mathieu and/or Sorenson on Kittle. Now, while Mathieu’s numbers WERE up this season, it’s a matter of Kansas City being ahead and teams just having to throw more – they were 7th in passes attempted against so it stands to reason he’d have more passes defended.
I’m not worried about the stage being too big for Garoppolo, either. He was with the Patriots in the 2016 Super Bowl. He knows what to expect. Pick: Kittle over 71 yards.