French Ligue 1 Pick of the Day Round 20 – PSG vs. AS Monaco (1/12/20)

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The reigning champions PSG are on a 12-game unbeaten run (W11, D1), and the Saints are on an 8-game winning streak, which makes them massive favorites when they meet Monaco. Les Monégasques, on the other hand, sacked head coach Leonardo Jardim for the second time in two years and appointed Robert Moreno, who previously worked as an assistant at Barcelona and Spain national team. The match between PSG and Monaco will take place at Parc des Princes on January 12th, 2020.

PSG vs. AS Monaco

Three-Way: 1: PSG -417; X: +650 Draw; 2: Monaco +1200 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -2: PSG -110; Monaco +102

Total 3.5 goals: Over -149; Under +142

PSG

PSG found their attacking stride in recent weeks, with their 6-1 win over St Étienne in the cup midweek recording a sixth competitive game in a row where the Parisians netted at least four goals (W6), all of which saw the French champions leading to nil at half-time.

An almost perfect record at home in Ligue 1 this season (W8, L1) has been mainly down to an attack that’s netted 2.67 goals on average per home match, coupled with a defense that conceded a league-low average of 0.33 at the same time. As such, seven of PSG’s eight L1 home wins have been achieved despite a -1 handicap (five despite a -2 handicap).

Thomas Tuchel doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns but will have to wait on the fitness of Presnel Kimpembe (thigh) and Abdou Diallo (muscle).

Betting Trends:

  • Kylian Mbappé has scored in eight consecutive PSG games (in all competitions) – he netted a hat-trick in the last H2H
  • PSG scored the opener by the 20th minute in four of their last five L1 home games
  • PSG won four of the last five competitive H2Hs despite a -2 handicap

AS MONACO

Monaco is moving up the table after recording a four-game unbeaten league run (W3, D1). They won’t have high hopes here considering they’ve netted an average of just 0.78 goals per Ligue 1 away game, and are winless in their last three top-flight trips here (D1, L2).

While the visitors’ last two defeats at PSG have come by at least a two-goal margin, their previous five L1 away games this term have seen the teams separated by less than 1.5 goals at full-time (W2, D1, L2). Perhaps unsurprisingly, the last four of those fixtures were level at half-time.

Robert Moreno cannot count on suspended goalkeeper Danijel Subasic, while Diego Benaglio (groin), Willem Geubbels (thigh), and Pietro Pellegri (thigh).

Betting Trends:

  • Wissam Ben Yedder netted a brace in his previous L1 match – he’s scored the opener in the last two L1 away games he’s found the net
  • There’s been three penalties and two red cards across Monaco’s last four away league games

PSG won nine of the previous ten H2H encounters (D1), including the last nine, while the Saints were victorious in each of the past five meetings at Parc des Princes. PSG are on an 8-game winning run at home, and they conceded just two goals in the process, while Monaco’s away form is not very good. The Parisians won each of the last five H2H duels by two goals or more difference, and I am backing the hosts to secure a comfortable victory in this one as well. This also occurred in the previous five encounters in Paris.

MY PICK: PSG AH -2 (-110)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Although PSG has been playing very well defensively in the last few weeks, Monaco scored seven goals in the previous two games. Monaco managed to score only two goals in the last five visits to Parc des Princes, but I am backing them to score in this one. The BTTS and Over 2.5 odds are not great, but in my opinion, it’s a sure shot.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals (-150)

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