French Ligue 1 Match of the Day Round 16 – Nantes vs. Marseille (12/5/18)

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After an unsurprising defeat to St. Etienne, Nantes return home for another tough test against Champions League aspirants Marseille. The game between Nantes and Marseille will take place at the Stade de la Beaujoire on December 5th, 2018.

NANTES vs. MARSEILLE

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Three-Way: 1: Nantes +210; X: +229 Draw; 2: Marseille +135 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Nantes -161; Marseille +125

Total 2.5 goals: Over +100; Under -125

NANTES

With seven separate goal scorers in their last six domestic matches, Nantes have plenty of attacking options to call upon. On paper, Nantes is likely to provide their greatest challenge to Marseille late in the game, having netted nearly half (six) of their 13 home goals this L1 season in the 76-90+ minute period.

The new coach, Vahid Halilhodzic, brought stability to the Stade de la Beaujoire and Nantes was on a six-game unbeaten run before they lost to St. Etienne last weekend. The Canaries did well to stop the hosts in the opening 45 minutes, not allowing a single shot on target, but St. Etienne broke their resistance in the second half with three goals from the substitute Robert Beric, WahbiKhazri, and TimotheeKolodziejczak to set the final score, 3-0.

Vahid Halilhodzic cannot count on the midfielder Valentin Rongier (knee), while Andrei Girotto (illness), Rene Krhin (knock), Waris Majeed (back), and Ciprian Tatarusanu (back) are all listed as questionable for the tilt with Marseille.

Betting Trends:

  • Nantes is without a home win when trailing at halftime as they drew two and lost one of three matches
  • Emiliano Sala has registered nine goals in as many domestic appearances for Nantes
  • Nantes failed to score just once at home this season
  • Six of their last eight matches (in all competitions) have each produced over 2.5 total goals

MARSEILLE

Faced with an unpredictable source of potential goals against them, Marseille will, therefore, need to be particularly alert after the break, especially since they have conceded 13 second-half goals away from home for a goal difference of -7 (equal third worst in Ligue 1) in that period.

Ahead of kick-off, Marseille also conceded first in six of their last eight matches across all competitions, and while their away record (W3, L4) may not look impressive, three of those losses have all come against top-four opposition.

Marseille’s two-game winning run snapped with a massive 4-0 defeat to Frankfurt in the Europa League and they failed to get a victory at home against Reims as the visitors kept them to a goalless draw. The hosts had 72 percent of ball possession and 16 shots but Reims’ keeper Edouard Mendy and their defense managed to survive without conceding. Marseille is sitting in the 5th position in Ligue 1 with 26 points, 17 behind the reigning champions and current leaders PSG and nine more than Nantes.

Rudi Garcia doesn’t have any injury-related concerns as all of the players are healthy and at his disposal for the upcoming clash with the Canaries.

Betting Trends:

  • Florian Thauvin has scored in five of his last seven away matches across all competitions
  • Marseille scored in their last seven H2H encounters with Nantes, going unbeaten in three
  • Marseille didn’t score a single goal in their last two games
  • All but one of Marseille’s last eight away Ligue 1 fixtures (all opponents) have produced three or more goals

Marseille won four out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3) including three out of the last six, while the visitors were victorious in two out of the past three meetings at the Stade de la Beaujoire. Still, this turf is traditionally tricky for Marseille as they recorded only four wins in the last 15 games and it’s going to be hard to beat Nantes who is without a home loss in the last three games. Marseille is also without a draw on the road in the Ligue 1 this year so I am going with a draw in this one.

MY PICK: Draw (+229)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Both teams have scored in four of the last five H2H league meetings between one another, while six out of the previous nine duels at the Stade de la Beaujoire produced goals on both ends, so I am backing BTTS here.

MY PICK: BTTS YES (-125)