The smallest pointspread of the four NFL Divisional Playoff games this weekend is on the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday on NBC. The Chiefs are listed as 1.5-point home favorites in a rematch from a game earlier this season that the Steelers won 43-14 at home in Week 4. The Chiefs are a much different team now as they have a playmaker on offense in Tyreek Hill and a stout defense.  Let’s look at the contest and NFL Playoff predictions.

The Steelers visit the Chiefs on Sunday, January 15th with a start time of 1:05 pm Eastern on NBC.

NFL Playoff Odds

Chiefs -1.5, total 44

Steelers vs. Chiefs

The Steelers have the more potent offense as they feature Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown but Kansas City does have an exciting playmaker in Tyreek Hill who is much more involved in the offense than he was back in Week 4. Hill has 12 total touchdowns this season and has proven to be a game breaker in the last couple of months.

Pittsburgh has been relying heavily on Bell to win games as he has averaged 157 rushing and receiving yards per game. The Steelers are scoring about 25 points per game while allowing about 21 points per contest.  The Pittsburgh defense is still without Cameron Heyward but they have improved in recent weeks.  “We’re getting better each week. Guys are starting to feel the energy,” said linebacker Bud Dupree, “I would love to say that [it’s because of me]. I hope that’s the case. I feel like we’re more confident. Everybody wants to be that person to make a play.”

Kansas City’s defense has been solid all season as they are 7th in the league, allowing about 19 points per contest. Kansas City has been without Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Johnson since Week 14. The good news for KC is that linebacker Justin Houston is healthy.

The Chiefs normally have a great home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City but they have not won a home playoff game in more than 20 years. This will be the first home playoff game for the Chiefs since 2011 when they were routed 30-7 by Baltimore. The Chiefs are 23-9 overall under head coach Andy Reid at Arrowhead so perhaps this is the year they finally get a home playoff win.

Game Trends

The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Kansas City. The Steelers are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games. The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. The Over is 16-5-1 in the Steelers last 22 playoff games. The Under is 19-7 in the Steelers last 26 road games. The Under is 38-16 in the Chiefs last 54 home games. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NFL Playoff Predictions

The Steelers have the flashier offense but if you look at the numbers the Chiefs averaged almost as many points per game as Pittsburgh and Kansas City has the better defense. I like the Chiefs to get the home win.