The Milwaukee Brewers may be in first place in their division, and they're really good at home, but they've struggled mightily on the road this season. And after dropping the first two games of an interleague series in the Bronx the Brew Crew will be looking to avoid a sweep when they meet the Yanks in that series finale Thursday afternoon (1:05 pm Eastern).
As of Thursday morning 5Dimes.com is listing New York as a -198 favorite for Thursday afternoon's game, with an over/under of 8.5. BetOnline.com is offering Milwaukee at +190.
The Yanks drubbed the Brewers 12-2 in the first game of this series Tuesday night, pinning seven runs on Milwaukee starter Zack Greinke in the first two innings. New York then beat the Brewers Wednesday 5-2, getting seven solid innings from AJ Burnett and a key three-run homer from Russell Martin.
So New York, which has won four in a row and eight of its last 10, leads the AL East by 2.5 games over the second-place Boston Red Sox.
The Brewers, meanwhile, who are only 6-9 over their last 15 games, still lead the NL Central, but now by only a game over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals.
Randy Wolf (6-4, 3.20) will start for Milwaukee Thursday against fellow lefty (and former Brewer) CC Sabathia (10-4, 3.25) for the Yanks.
Wolf has strung together four straight quality starts, allowing six earned runs on 25 hits in his last 27 2/3 innings pitched. The Brewers are 9-7 in Wolf's starts this season, and have won six of his last seven outings. And the over/unders are 6-10 in Wolf's starts this year.
Wolf last started vs. the Yankees in 2008, as a member of the San Diego Padres.
Sabathia recently went through a three-game stretch in which he gave up 14 ER in 20 2/3 innings, but he got back on track with a quality start vs. Colorado last Saturday, allowing one ER on seven hits in eight innings of an 8-3 Yankees victory. On the season New York is 12-5 in Sabby's starts, while the totals have gone 13-4, thanks to some of the best run support any starter in the Majors has received this season.
Sabathia hasn't started against the Brewers since 2006.
Milwaukee is 15-26 on the road this season, while New York is 27-18 at home.
The over/unders are 39-37 in Brewers games this year, 35-36 in Yankees games, and 22-19 in games played at Yankee Stadium, which have averaged 9.5 RPG.
As for Thursday's game Sabathia is looking once again like a Cy Young candidate, but he's always overpriced. And Wolf has been sharp lately. So we'll take the big price and back the Brewers.