MLB Picks


New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays

Starting Pitchers: New York (Nova) vs. Tampa Bay (Shields)


Date/Time: Monday, July 3 7:10 p.m. (ET)

Television: MLB Network

MLB Odds: Yankees (-125) Rays (+105)

Total: 8


MLB Betting Game Trends

New York Yankees

  • NY Yankees are 17-6 SU in their last 23 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
  • NY Yankees are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games on the road
  • NY Yankees are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
  • Tampa Bay is 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing NY Yankees
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing NY Yankees


No one in baseball has been hotter than the New York Yankees over the past month. New York has vaulted to a six-game lead in the tough AL East, and they now own the second-best record in baseball. Tampa Bay’s injuries seem to have caught up with them a bit over the past few weeks, but they are still a solid 42-38 on the season. It’s always an exciting series when these two AL East teams meet.

Ivan Nova has been spectacular over his last few starts. Nova has allowed a total of five earned runs in his last five starts. He is 9-2 on the season with a 4.03 ERA. The Yankees pitching staff has a solid 3.70 ERA so far in 2012. It also helps that the Yankees defense has been terrific. New York has only committed 36 errors this year.

The Bronx Bombers lead the majors with 124 home runs. Robinson Cano has been scorching hot over the last couple weeks. Cano’s hot streak has catapulted his average to .313, and he already has 20 homers on the season. Six guys in this Yankees lineup have at least 11 homers in 2012 thus far. Derek Jeter’s resurgence has given this offense a major boost. The Yankees average 4.72 runs per game.

Tampa Bay’s offense has been short-handed all season, and it seems it has finally caught up with them over the last few weeks. Tampa Bay has a horrible team batting average of just .232. That gives the team the second worst team batting average in the majors. Both Evan Longoria and Matt Joyce are out of the lineup right now, and they are arguably the team’s two best hitters. Ben Zobrist is the Rays regular with the best batting average right now, and he is only hitting .253. B.J. Upton and Sean Rodriguez are two guys the team really needs to get more out of as the season moves along.

James Shields had a breakout season last year, but he has been unable to match that success so far this season. Shields is 7-5 with a 4.04 ERA on the year. He has a very poor 1.40 WHIP. In his last outing he allowed 14 hits in 7 and 2/3 innings. In contrast to the Yankees, the Rays defense has been miserable. Tampa Bay has committed 66 errors this year.

MLB Free Pick: Over 8

Nova has been better of late, but he has been inconsistent for the majority of his career. The Yankees offense is firing on all cylinders right now. I like the value on the over with the total set at just 8 runs.