Milwaukee has won 16 of its last 22 games in St. Louis, after picking up a 12-5 blowout victory on Saturday. The Brewers stand at 20-22 overall away from Miller Park and are 4-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season (-360). Over the last seven games, the lineup has combined to hist .291 as a team, while the Brewers average 5.4 runs on the road (21-19 O/U) The second-ranked offense in the National League has hit 101 home runs on the season, but will have a tough time leaving the ball park against a Cardinals staff that has allowed only 58 home runs in 81 games this season. The club has a winning 30-23 mark when hitting a home run this season and 6-21 when staying in the yard. Milwaukee faces off against a starting pitcher that has allowed just five home runs in 93 innings against them.
Right-handed starter Yovani Gallardo is set to make his 18th start of the season for the Brewers and second start against the St. Louis Cardinals. He last started on Tuesday versus the Houston Astros and picked up a 7-5 win. He allowed four earned runs and seven hits over six innings in that outing and also hit his third home run of the season. Milwaukee is 9-8 in his starts this year, as he’s allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 17 outings. Gallardo is seeking his first career victory against the division rival, going 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA in five starts. He lost his only start against St. Louis in 2010, 7-1, at Miller Park by surrendering six runs and five hits over five frames.
St. Louis has a great chance of scoring first in today’s contest with one of its aces on the mound, which would move the team’s record to 31-7 when tallying the first run on the scoreboard this season. The Cardinals are an even 6-6 in Sunday games this season with the total providing bettors the best opportunity to make money (8-4 O/U). The offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game at home this season, leading the team to a 28-15 mark at Busch Stadium. The more impressive statistic is opponents managing to score just 3.5 runs in those games due to the pitching staff leading the majors in home ERA. The bullpen has been incredible in home whites by allowing just 97 hits in 125 innings (2.81 ERA). Expect a top-notch performance out of manager Tony Larussa’s squad, bringing a 71-34 record in their last 105 games as a favorite of -150 to -200.
Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright is set to make his 18th start in the series finale this afternoon, compiling an 11-5 record and 2.34 ERA. He will have his eyes set on becoming the first 12-game winner for the franchise before the All-Star break since 2005. He is a rock solid 6-3 with a 2.03 ERA against the Brewers in his career, including a complete game victory on June 4 at Busch Stadium. Wainwright moved his record to a perfect 8-0 at home with a 1.49 ERA, after picking up an 8-0 victory against Arizona on Tuesday. The No. 2 starter in the Cardinals rotation has led the team to a 10-1 record in his last 11 home starts versus a team with a losing record.
All the angles and stats lead to the Cardinals giving their fans a victory on Independence Day. Home teams have come away with an 11-6 record this season with umpire Alfonso Marquez behind the dish. This becomes even a bigger angle with the home team being 39-16 in his last 55 Sunday games behind home plate.