The difference between backing a team at home and a team on the road in Major League Baseball is approximately 40 cents on the MLB odds, and that 40 cents often sets teams up for massive failures while playing at home. Join us today at Bang the Book as we analyze the teams that did the worst in their home parks that you should be looking to fade as the season wears on.
(Home record and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Milwaukee Brewers (1-5, -$517) - The Brew Crew have historically been a great home team and a terrible road team, but this season thus far, there have been some real problems. We know that we are only eight games into the campaign at this point, but Milwaukee managed just one win in its six games played at Miller Park against the Rockies and the Diamondbacks, teams that shouldn't be winning all that many games that far away from home.
Toronto Blue Jays (2-4, -$405) - Think that Toronto might have been an overrated team coming into this season? Ok, so we know that it is a long season ahead, but the Jays rebuilt their entire team, and they had to think that their pitching staff was going to be suitable against any opponents that came to the Rogers Centre this season. Instead, in three of the first six games of the season, Toronto allowed at least six runs, including giving up 13 to the Red Sox in the last of those games. The offense has only plated more than five runs once all season long, and the team was favored by at least a -141 margin in all but one of those six games at home. That's why the 2-4 start has been so devastating.
Houston Astros (1-5, -$312) - Last season when the team went 55-107, the Astros really ended up doing most of their damage to their MLB bettors on the road, where they went 20-61 and lost $2,772 for the year. However, at home, they weren't exactly a great club either, going 35-46 and losing $297. This season's team is off to a horrid start as well. After winning on Opening Day in the first game that the team played as a member of the American League, the 'Stros have been horrid, losing all five of their games. When teams that are worse than Oakland and Texas start coming to town, there are going to be some real issues for Houston. Goodness help us when this team is *gasp!* favored at home against some of the mediocre teams in the American League! We just don't see many situations when the Astros should be favored this year, and we think that it will be a long, long season at Minute Maid Park.
Cleveland Indians (0-2, -$217) - The Indians were one of the worst home teams in baseball last year from a betting standpoint, going 37-44 and costing bettors $951 in profits. This season has already been a miniature disaster in two games. The team sold out Opening Day against the Yankees, but it lost 11-6. Now, Cleveland brought in a quarter of those fans for the second game of the year against the Bronx Bombers and gave up two touchdowns. Three pitchers have allowed seven runs already in just two games played at Progressive Field. Matters are going to be getting worse a whole heck of a lot sooner than they are getting better for the Tribe.
Baltimore Orioles (1-2, -$217) - How on earth this team won 47 games at home last season, we'll never know. The Orioles won just an insane quantity of one-run games, especially at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and we have to think that that's going to regulate itself here in 2013. We already saw the chinks in the armor this season come out at home against the Twins, losing two one-run games. If this keeps up this season, there's no way that we could consistently back the Orioles in spite of all of their magic last year.