Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team's moneyline record, it doesn't necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the best teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
Kansas City Royals (16-9, +$848) - Maybe the Mayans were right… The Royals are the best run-line team in basically, and we're convinced that Hell probably would have frozen over before the Royals were the best at anything in baseball. As it is though, Kansas City can ball. The team has gone just 3-2 in its last five games against the run line, but in that stretch, it has picked up two wins of +165 or greater on the run-line as well. That's the type of production that is going to make an MLB betting fan rich over the course of time, and if it keeps up over the course of the rest of this home stand, the Royals are going to continue being the kings of the AL Central.
Colorado Rockies (18-10, +$777) - For as well as the Rockies have played this year, their run line record is actually more impressive than their SU record. They've gone 6-2 in their last eight games against the run line going into play this weekend, and they are getting the job done thanks to the fact that they are blasting the ball all over the park. Especially this early in the season, averaging 5.29 runs per game isn't easy, but what's more impressive is the fact that the team has a .283 batting average and a .815 OPS. When you can put that type of pressure on pitchers, you're always in a game, and that's what we have found Colorado to be able to do this year.
Baltimore Orioles (17-11, +$565) - The truth of the matter is that the Orioles have been great at keeping games close over the course of the last season and change, and that's why they have consistently been one of the best run-line teams in the game. This year, we think that Baltimore is going to take a bit of a step backwards, but regardless, it is still going to be an underdog, thus +1.5 against a ton of teams in the AL East. This isn't an offensive machine by any stretch of the imagination, so playing -1.5 with the Orioles probably won't be an investment that pays off over time. However, in its last eight games as underdogs, Baltimore has won all eight against the run-line.
Boston Red Sox (15-12, +$446) - When you're the best team in the league, and you're consistently favored, all you really need to do is be around a 50/50 team on the run-line and you're going to turn some profits. The Sox are going to be the first team in the bigs to get to 20 SU victories this year, and they are turning heads on the run-line this year as well. It helps when you've got an offense averaging over five runs a game and two starting pitchers that are a combined 10-0 with a combined 1.97 ERA as well. RHP Clay Buchholz and LHP Jon Lester have been tearing things up this year in Beantown, and though there is no way that type of success will keep up for a full season, it's fun and profitable to see unfold for the time being.
Detroit Tigers (14-12, +$429) - Here's another example of a team that mashes the baseball, and because of it, it is going to have a lot of games that end with the winning team winning on the run-line as well. Detroit has actually only played in five one-run games this year, and it lost three of the five. However, it did score the run-line win in two of those defeats though, and that's part of the reason why this has all leveled out. The Tigers are going to win a lot of games by scoring 6+ runs this year, and in those games, they're going to be beating the run-line at plus odds quite a bit.