Little known fact: Over 29% of all MLB games are decided by a single run! All too often, when we see a team's moneyline record, it doesn't necessarily correspond with its record on the run-line, and the differences have the tendency of being quite drastic. Join us today, as we dissect how some of the best teams have done in baseball on the run-line thus far in the 2013 MLB betting campaign.
(Run-Line records and amount of profit based upon a $100 bet listed in parentheses)
St. Louis Cardinals (34-28, +$1,576) - Is there anything the Cardinals aren't good at? They're the best road team in the game, and they have the best run-line mark in the bigs as well. They already have 42 wins, and they are starting to put some separation between themselves and the rest of the NL Central, as good as that division truly is. What's really saving the Cards right now in terms of the run line is that they haven't won a one-run game since May 17th. Since then, there have been 15 wins, and all 15 have come by at least two runs. The team has consistently been around that -150 range on the MLB odds as well, and though that doesn't seem to be all that impressive, what is impressive is the fact that all of those games have been covered around the +140 mark or so at -1.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates (41-24, +$1,576) - The Pirates are the only team in baseball with at least 23 wins at home, and they're the only team in the game with more than 38 victories on the run line on the season as well. The situation with Pittsburgh and that of the Cardinals seems to be awfully similar. The Bucs have won four of their last five games, and they have won all of those games by at least two runs. The biggest win for the club recently was the first start for RHP Gerrit Cole, who busted onto the scene in his first career start and allowed just two runs in 6.1 innings of work to get his first career victory against the defending World Series champions at home. Be careful, though. The Pirates are only 6-7 in their last 13 games at home on the run-line, and a number of those wins have come as slight underdogs.
Oakland Athletics (38-29, +$969) - The profits for the A's have really come about over the course of the last two days against the Yankees. They were at least +170 underdogs on the -1.5 run-line in these last two games, and they won both with ease, beating the Bronx Bombers 6-4 on Tuesday and 5-2 on Wednesday. It also helps that Oakland has won seven of its last eight games outright as underdogs and that it is 8-1 in its last nine against the run-line when it is getting the run and a half head start. All of this really could keep up for the A's, who still seem to be one of the most underappreciated teams in the bigs this year.
New York Yankees (35-30, +$780) - There's a relatively large drop off here to the Yankees, and we already know the reason why. Just go ahead and look at those two games against Oakland that we just mentioned. Losing games as +110 underdogs aren't so bad when you're looking at your SU record. However, when you lose those games by more than a run, it's a killer against your run-line record. All that being said though, New York is still the consummate team that has a better record against the run-line than against the moneyline in spite of the fact that it is only 35-30 against that run-line this year. The story really never changes with the Bronx Bombers from year to year.
Philadelphia Phillies (37-29, +$751) - We love this for Phillies bettors. Once upon a time, this was one of the best teams in the game, and it was the World Series champion in 2008. However, for years and years, this was a club that struggled on the run-line, or at least it didn't see as much success on the run-line as it did straight up. However, this year, it's all coming full circle. The Phillies are the 22nd best money team in the game right now because of their 31-35 SU record that has cost bettors $827 in profits. However, on the run line, the team is 37-29 thanks to all of these close losses that have been suffered, and the end result is a whopping nearly 16 units of difference if you bet this team on the run-line every game as opposed to on the moneyline.