Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: August 11, 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Betting Odds From 5Dimes Sportsbook
Probable Starters: LAD: Dan Haren (9-9, 4.57) v. ATL: Julio Teheran (10-8, 2.92)
A day after playing yet another close game with the Washington Nationals, the Atlanta Braves welcome the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers to Turner Field. The Braves won 3-1 on Sunday night to win the series with the Nationals. It was a key series for the Braves, who had lost eight straight prior to Friday’s series opening win. That included a sweep at the hand of the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine during the last week of July. They’ll try to exact some revenge at home, as the Dodgers come in with a 4.5-game lead in the NL West thanks to yet another gem from Clayton Kershaw on Sunday.
Dan Haren will take the hill for the Dodgers on Monday night. The hope was that Haren would have more success in a ballpark that suppressed home runs, but he has allowed 22 in 134 innings of work, which puts him ahead of last season’s pace when he allowed 28 in 169.2 innings. Thirteen of those 22 home runs have come in Haren’s 13 road starts. Since May 7, Haren has allowed at least one home run in 14 of his 16 starts. Not surprisingly, he has a 5.48 ERA over that span and opposing batters are slugging over .500.
Julio Teheran has improved on what many people thought was a great season in 2013. He has lowered his walk rate and has three complete games already this season. Regression was coming for Teheran for a while earlier in the season and it has hit, as he has posted a 4.21 ERA over his last 11 starts after entering his June 11 start against Colorado with a 1.89 ERA. Teheran hasn’t had much margin for error in his starts because the Braves, who have been offensively-challenged most of the season, have only scored 3.3 runs per game in his 24 starts.
Haren is 5-2 with a 4.68 ERA against the Braves in eight starts and one relief appearance. Only three of those nine appearances have been more recent than 2010 and those came last season with the Washington Nationals. Haren made three appearances, two starts, against the Braves last season and was 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA over 15 innings. The Dodgers are 11-12 in Haren’s 23 starts for a loss of 2.35 units.
Teheran made his first career start against the Dodgers on July 31 and threw an eight-inning complete game, but was a tough luck loser in a 2-1 loss. He allowed two runs on five hits with nine strikeouts and three walks. Unfortunately for Teheran, he went up against Clayton Kershaw. The Braves are 14-10 in Teheran’s 24 starts for a profit of 1.76 units.
Free MLB Pick: Atlanta
Dan Haren has had major problems away from Dodger Stadium with an ERA of almost 5.00 and Teheran’s regression phase is mostly past him, so the better results should start to come. Teheran is 4-1 with a spectacular 1.48 ERA at home this season and he has a 1.62 ERA this season in wins and no-decisions. He’s pitched extremely well more often than not and might actually enjoy some run support on Monday night.