Matchup: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: September 14, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network
MLB Betting Odds From 5Dimes Sportsbook
Probable Starters: NYY: Hiroki Kuroda (10-9, 3.91) v. BAL: Chris Tillman (12-5, 3.36)
Moneyline: Baltimore -140
The New York Yankees snapped Baltimore’s six-game winning streak on Saturday afternoon, but the Orioles still hold a commanding 10.5-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. They’ll try to secure a series victory over the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. This will be 15th matchup of the season between the two teams. The Orioles are 10-4 against the Yankees this season. With Saturday’s loss, the Orioles fell to 36-18 since the All-Star Break, while the Yankees improved to 29-24.
Hiroki Kuroda will take the mound for the Yankees on Sunday night. The veteran right-hander is experiencing the worst season of his career in his age-39 season. He has a 3.91 ERA, though his excellent walk rate has his FIP at 3.66, which is right near his career average of 3.62. There’s no major decline of skills evident from Kuroda, though his strikeout rate looks like it will fall for the fifth consecutive season. In 10 starts since the All-Star Break, Kuroda has a 3.54 ERA and a .629 OPS against. He’s ending the season on a pretty positive note, which is important because Kuroda will be a free agent following the season.
Chris Tillman has been a Cy Young Award candidate since June 10. Tillman is 7-3 with a 2.24 ERA after starting the season 5-2, but with a 5.20 ERA. Tillman has not given up more than five runs in any of his last 18 starts and has allowed three or less in 16 of his last 18 starts. The Orioles are 13-5 in that span and Tillman’s dominant run has been a big part of the reason why the Orioles have opened up such a big lead in the AL East standings. Tillman is in line for a sizable raise after the season and each start improves his arbitration case.
Kuroda will be facing the Orioles for the 10th time in his career. In nine previous starts, Kuroda is 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA. This season, Kuroda is 1-0 in three starts with a 2.57 ERA with a 13/1 K/BB ratio. The Yankees are 13-16 in Kuroda’s 29 starts for a loss of 6.09 units. The Yankees have scored three runs or less in 14 of Kuroda’s 29 starts.
Tillman will be facing the Yankees for the 14th time in his career. In 13 previous starts, Tillman is 5-5 with a 5.32 ERA. This season, however, Tillman seems to have cracked the code, as he has posted a 2.18 ERA in three starts. He is just 1-1 in those games. The Orioles are 22-9 in Tillman’s 31 starts for a profit of 14.20 units. Tillman has been the most profitable pitcher in the Majors this season.
Free MLB Pick: New York Yankees
It’s a slightly surprising lean to like the Yankees here, but Tillman is probably due some regression from his big stretch and the Orioles could start to put the season into cruise control. Because the Orioles trail the Angels by a substantial amount and have a sizable cushion on both the Tigers and Royals, the inflated price on Tillman, who has burned the books all season long, places the value on the road team.