Matchup: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Date/Time: September 22, 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Betting Odds From 5Dimes Sportsbook
Probable Starters: BAL: Ubaldo Jimenez (5-9, 4.90) v. NYY: Brandon McCarthy (7-4, 2.54)
Moneyline: New York -154
The Baltimore Orioles appear destined to finish with the #2 seed in the AL playoffs as they trail the Angels for home-field during the final week of the season. They have already locked up the East Division title, their first since 1997. The New York Yankees are in need of a miracle for a shot at the AL Wild Card, but the way they’ve fought to the finish has been impressive.
Ubaldo Jimenez will take the ball for the Orioles on Tuesday. It could be Jimenez’s final start, though his turn in the rotation will come up again on Sunday and it’s not like he’s going to be a part of the Orioles’ rotation in the ALDS. Jimenez has been a bust in the first year of his four-year, $50M contract. He’s 5-9 with a 4.90 ERA and spent time both on the disabled list and in the bullpen. In 119.2 innings, Jimenez has walked 74 batters and has 110 strikeouts. In 21 starts and two relief appearances, Jimenez has never finished an outing with an ERA below 4.02.
Brandon McCarthy has been a pleasant addition for the Yankees since he was acquired by the Arizona Diamondbacks. McCarthy is 7-4 with a 2.54 ERA after posting a 3-10 record and a 5.01 ERA in the National League. McCarthy is one of 33 pitchers used by the Yankees this season as injuries have decimated the pitching staff. This could be McCarthy’s last start for the Yankees as he will be a free agent after the season. Nine of McCarthy’s 13 starts have been of the quality variety.
Jimenez will face the Yankees for the seventh time in his career. He’s 1-4 with a 5.79 ERA. This season, Jimenez is 0-1 in two starts with a 4.35 ERA. He has 11 walks and seven strikeouts in those two starts. The Orioles are 8-13 in Jimenez’s 21 starts for a loss of 4.13 units.
McCarthy will face the Orioles for the 10th time overall and eighth time as a starter. He is 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA, but only three of those nine appearances have come since 2009. This season, McCarthy took a no-decision after seven shutout innings. The Yankees are 8-5 in McCarthy’s 13 starts for a profit of 3.87 units.
Free MLB Pick: New York Yankees
Ubaldo Jimenez has been a trainwreck and Brandon McCarthy has some incentive to finish the season strong with free agency on the horizon. With the Orioles basically locked into the #2 spot, it’s hard to see a quick hook for Jimenez if he’s struggling. That opens the door for the Yankees, who are still playing hard in spite of how far out they are.
Matchup: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: September 22, 10:05 p.m. ET
MLB Betting Odds From 5Dimes Sportsbook
Probable Starters: SF: Madison Bumgarner (18-9, 2.91) v. LAD: Zack Greinke (15-8, 2.76)
Moneyline: Los Angeles -141
The best pitching matchup in MLB tomorrow night will take place at Dodger Stadium when Madison Bumgarner and the Giants take on Zack Greinke and the Dodgers. The Dodgers are inching closer to another NL West Division title and the Giants need wins to stay in control of their destiny in the wild card race, especially because home-field in the play-in game is on the line as the Giants are neck and neck with the Pirates.
Madison Bumgarner is having a special season as he continues to get better. The lefty crossed the 200-strike mark for the first time in his career and has a K/BB ratio near 5/1 as his regular season winds down. Bumgarner is 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA since the All-Star Break and the Giants are 9-3 in his 12 starts. In 83 innings, he has 86 strikeouts and 11 walks. He’s a special pitcher and this could be his last regular season start so that he can pitch the wild card game if necessary.
Zack Greinke has been tremendous once again for the Dodgers. He’s 15-8 with a 2.76 ERA and is having the best season since his 2009 Cy Young Award winning season. In 11 starts since the All-Star Break, Greinke has a 2.80 ERA, yet the Dodgers are just 6-5 and Greinke is just 4-3. Greinke has not thrown 100 or more pitches in five of his last eight starts, so it appears that Don Mattingly is saving his right-hander as much as he can.
Bumgarner is 11-4 with a 2.36 ERA in his career against the Dodgers spanning 16 starts and one relief appearance. This season, Bumgarner is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in four starts with a 33/7 K/BB ratio. The Giants are 20-12 in Bumgarner’s 32 starts for a profit of 4.69 units.
Greinke is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA in six career starts against the Giants. This season, Greinke is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA. He has 31 strikeouts against four walks in 25.2 innings. The Dodgers are 17-13 in Greinke’s 30 starts for a loss of 0.68 units.
Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
Both of these pitchers are elite and runs are going to be at a premium in this game. The Dodgers could be the value side here given how the Giants have been playing and the inflated line with Bumgarner on the hill. It’s a tough game to pick, but the Dodgers enter this game playing a bit better.