American League Division Series Game 3: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Kansas City Royals

Date/Time: October 5, 7:37 p.m. ET


MLB Betting Odds From 5Dimes Sportsbook

Probable Starters: LAA: CJ Wilson (0-0, 0.00) v. KC: James Shields (0-0, 0.00)

Moneyline: Kansas City -128

Total: 7

The Kansas City Royals are one win away from moving on to the American League Championship Series and they’ll have two shots at doing it at home. The Royals have won have three wins this postseason and all of them have come in extra innings, as their defense and bullpen have made a big difference. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim won a league-high 98 games and they’re one loss away from going home, despite securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Royals will have their ace on the mound and the Angels will have the struggling CJ Wilson.

CJ Wilson had the worst season of his career as a starter this year and now it’s up to him to extend the season another day for the Angels. Wilson was 13-10 with a 4.51 ERA and a 4.31 FIP, also the worst of his starting career. For the second time in five years, Wilson led the American League in walks allowed. Fortunately for him, the Royals were dead last in percentage of plate appearances ending with a walk. Wilson comes into the postseason with a 4.85 ERA over his last 12 starts. In the playoffs, Wilson is just 1-5 with a 4.82 ERA in 52.1 innings of work. He has not pitched in the postseason since 2011.

The Royals acquired James Shields for starts like the last one that he made and for the one that he will make on Sunday. Shields struggled in the Wild Card game, allowing four runs on five hits over five innings of work. The Royals eventually came back and won the game, but Shields had to be disappointed in his performance. Shields is now just 2-4 in seven career postseason starts with a 5.26 ERA. Shields had a 2.14 ERA in his final six regular season starts, but he did allow three runs in each of his last three starts.

Wilson is 4-0 with a 3.20 career ERA against the Royals. That covers 17 total appearances and seven starts. From 2011-14, however, Wilson is 2-0 with a 4.71 ERA against the Royals. This season, Wilson allowed 19 baserunners in 10 innings against the Royals. The Angels are 16-15 in Wilson’s 31 starts for a loss of 1.36 units.

Shields is 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 starts. Shields has allowed just 15 walks in 89.2 innings against the Angels. This season, Shields had a no-decision in one start with four runs allowed over six innings against the Angels. The Royals are 21-13 in Shields’s 34 starts for a profit of 4.73 units.

Free MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals

The Royals will have a raucous home crowd and they’ve got all the momentum in the world for this Game 3 matchup. CJ Wilson is not the guy that the Angels wanted to rely on in the postseason, but that’s the spot that they’re in. James Shields has had problems in the spotlight, but the Royals are a very confident team right now and everything seems to be going their way. Their defense is elite and the bullpen has been terrific. Take the Royals to end it in a sweep.